Putting the February 2015 Cold into Perspective

Glen Echo, MD     February 2015

As February 2015 comes to a close, it’s fitting that today’s temperatures have held nearly twenty degrees below normal.  That’s because this month has seen a plethora of record low temperatures as far south as Florida and as far west as Colorado.  This has also been the coldest month on record in cities like Syracuse, New York, and Bangor, Maine according to the National Weather Service.   Locally, this month will finish as the 14^th coldest February in the Nation’s Capital since weather records began in 1871.

February 2015 has had seven days with highs below freezing in Washington, D.C.  It was also 5 degrees at National Airport on February 20.  That was not only was the coldest temperature in the Nation’s Capital since 1996, but it also broke a 119 year old record low for the date according to National Weather Service records.  Before this month, no record lows had been broken during the month of February in Washington, D.C., since 1970.  That almost makes the casual observer forget Washington, D.C., had a record high of 68 degrees on February 8.

The average temperature (combining daily high and low temperatures) for the month of February 2015 was 30.3 degrees, which is the coldest February since 1979 (when the February average was 28.4 degrees).  The coldest February on record in the Nation’s Capital was in 1934 when the average temperature was 24.6 degrees.  February 2015 has had above average snowfall with a monthly total of 9.8”, compared to the monthly average of 5.7”. 

At Dulles Airport, February has been even colder than downtown, with five new record lows and ten days that featured low temperatures in the single digits.  There were nine days when the high temperatures held below freezing and one day where the temperature fell below 0.  In fact, when the temperature fell to -4 degrees on February 24, that was not only a new record low, but was also the coldest temperature observed at Dulles Airport since February 1996.  The average monthly temperature for February 2015 at Dulles Airport was 25.4 degrees, making it their second coldest February.  Their coldest February on record came in 1979 when the average temperature was 23.3 degrees.  

Looking ahead to March, some colder than average weather remains on the horizon.  However, there is some good news for those who are ready for warmer weather.  The average high temperature on March 1 is 51 degrees in the Nation’s Capital and that rises to 61 degrees by March 31.  The warmest temperature on record during the month of March in Washington, D.C., is 93 degrees.  Thoughts of spring should help the memories of the frigid February begin to fade.

How Cold has this February Been?

Bryant Park, New York City  (February 23, 2015) 

The last two weeks have featured some of the coldest weather on record in many cities across the Central and Eastern United States.  In addition to the cold, some cities, such as Boston, are also on the verge of setting a new record for snowiest season.  Locally, the Mid-Atlantic Region has also seen several days with snow this month, including nine days with snow reported at National Airport.

Despite the nine days of snow, the monthly total of 7.6” so far this month is within two inches of the February average of 5.7” in the Nation's Capital.  Meanwhile, Dulles Airport has observed almost double that amount with a total of 14” this month.  However, unlike February 2010 and February 2003 (that both saw a prolific amount of the snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic Region) February 2015 will be remembered more for prolonged cold, than for snowfall.

As recently as yesterday, Dulles Airport had their coldest temperature since 1996 with a morning low of -4 degrees.  That obliterated their previous record low of 14 degrees.  From February 15 – 21, Dulles Airport had seven consecutive days with low temperatures in the single digits.  According to the National Weather Service, that’s the coldest such stretch at Dulles Airport since January 1987.

Meanwhile, at National Airport, they had their coldest day in almost two decades last Friday.  On February 20, the temperature fell to 5 degrees breaking the 119 year old record low of 8 degrees.  Washington, D.C., hadn’t been that cold since February 1996 and hadn’t set a record low in February since 1970.  In fact, this month is setting up to be the coldest February in the Nation’s Capital since 1979 which had a monthly average temperature (combining daytime highs and nighttime lows) of 28.4 degrees.  Through February 24, this month has had an average temperature of 30.2 degrees. 

Dulles Airport has been even colder with an average monthly temperature of 25.4 degrees through yesterday.  That’s good for second coldest February on record (behind 1979 that saw an average monthly temperature of 23.3 degrees) according to the National Weather Service.  Since below average temperatures are expected to continue the rest of the week, February 2015 will finish as the coldest in decades in the Nation’s Capital.

Weather Quiz

Many anxiously await spring in the Northeastern United States !

True or False.

A winter season that’s either colder and/or snowier than average in the Nation’s Capital tends to foreshadow whether or not the upcoming summer will be hotter/drier or cooler/wetter than average.

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Answer to Weather Quiz question from February 14.

To be determined.  So far this winter, Boston has had 99.9" of snow which puts them narrowly behind the 107.6” total from the 1995-1996 season for snowiest winter on record.  Boston has already broken myriad snowfall records so far this winter such as record 30-day snowfall, fastest six-foot snowfall and record 90-day snowfall.  Being only late February, it’s quite reasonable to expect Boston will surpass the overall snow total from 1995-1996. 

Winter's Polar Express

Bethesda, MD: February 20, 2015

The last week has featured myriad record lows across the Eastern United States that have broken century old records in some cities.  In the Nation’s Capital, yesterday's high temperature was only 22 degrees Fahrenheit with a low of 5 degrees.  That was was the coldest day since February 5, 1996, when the high and low temperatures were 21 and 5 degrees respectively.

Yesterday’s low temperature of 5 degrees at National Airport broke the old record of 8 degrees that had stood since 1896.  It’s rare for Washington, D.C., to have single digit temperatures and rarer still to have any in the second half of February.  The average high and low in Washington, D.C. on February 20 are 48 and 32 degrees.  So that helps demonstrate how rare yesterday’s cold was with yesterday’s high temperature more than 10 degrees colder than the average low.

Before yesterday, no record lows had been set in the Nation’s Capital during the winter since January 1994.  You have to go all the way back to 1970 for the last time Washington, D.C., experienced record cold in February.  Although Dulles Airport fell to a low of 0 degrees yesterday (their coldest temperature of the winter) that narrowly missed breaking the record low of -2.  However, it was the 6^th consecutive day with low temperatures of less than 10 degrees at Dulles Airport.  Baltimore also had their coldest temperature of the winter yesterday setting a new record low of 1 degree.  Baltimore set another record low of 2 degrees this morning and it hasn’t been above freezing there since February 14.

The Mid-Atlantic Region hasn’t been alone in the record cold this week.  The outbreak of arctic air has also caused record lows in New York, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta and as far south as parts of Florida.  A significant dip in the jet stream over the Eastern United States has allowed the polar air to make its way all the way south to the U.S. Gulf Coast.  The Nation’s Capital has had some snow this week too to coincide with the record cold.

In fact, the DC Metro Region is split between winter storm warnings to the north and west of town while winter weather advisories are in effect from I-95 south and east of town.  Unlike the storm earlier in the week that brought pure snow, today’s snow will change to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain and eventually rain for most of the region.  That’s because the track of this storm is a little different and the atmosphere will not remain cold enough for pure snow.  However, because of this week’s prolonged cold, ground temperatures are below freezing.  That means snow will accumulate as soon as it starts and the potential is there for some ice accumulation too.  

After temperatures climb above freezing tomorrow, more unusually cold air is expected for the start of the new work week.  In fact, more record lows are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic Region.  For the latest forecasts on today’s winter storm you can follow my colleagues on the WUSA9 weather team both on-air, online and on the all new WUSA9 news app for your mobile devices.