“Surprise” Snow: Could it Happen Again ?

Snowfall Accumulations 1-25-2000    Source: NWS

On this date in 2000, Washingtonians had one of their largest snowstorms in recent memory.  What made that storm memorable to meteorologists and weather enthusiasts is the fact that the forecast models at the time did not do a good job.  As recently as 24 hours before the snow began on January 25, the computer models used kept the majority of the precipitation east of the DC Metro Region. 

 

It wasn’t until Monday evening, January 24, 2000, that meteorologists realized the storm was going to be much more significant than the computer models originally suggested.  In fact, winter storm warnings weren’t issued until late evening on January 24.  However, some people had gone to bed before they saw these updated forecasts and expected only a light dusting by morning.  Those people woke up to a major surprise on January 25, 2000. 

The Mid-Atlantic Region saw a significant amount of snow from the Nor’Easter with daily snowfall records at all three area airports.  National Airport recorded 9.3”, Dulles Airport in Sterling, VA, recorded 10.3” while BWI Airport saw a storm total of 14.9” for their highest snow totals since the “Blizzard of 1996.”  I was a student forecaster at the time with my school’s Campus Weather Service in Pennsylvania and vividly remember watching the snow move farther north and west each hour on radar until it enveloped the entire Mid-Atlantic Region and Susquehanna Valley. 

The relatively poor job the forecast models did with this storm 15 years ago was the subject of several studies that helped lead to a series of improvements since then.  Forecasting winter storms has an inherent amount of uncertainty to it and that makes routinely checking the latest forecasts critically important. 

Not only has weather forecasting improved due to improvements in technology but there is another thing that’s evolved in the last decade and a half too.  The explosion of social media all but guarantees that the weather forecast is readily available to the general public through Twitter, Facebook, smartphone apps, as well as conventional means such as TV, radio and the WUSA9 website.  The likelihood of snow tonight and early this week will put these tools to good use.