Looking Ahead to Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Ana at peak intensity (April 21, 2003)

More people start to wonder what kind of hurricane season is on tap as we get deeper into spring.  Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic Ocean and runs through November 30.  An average season features 10 named tropical storms, of which 6 becomes hurricanes and 3 of those grow into “major” hurricanes.  A major hurricane is at least a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Dating back to 1995, the Atlantic Ocean has seen a series of above average hurricane seasons every year except three.  Although two of those three seasons came in 2013 and 2014, that doesn’t indicate an end to the cycle of busier than average hurricane seasons.  In fact, the distinguished tropical meteorologists at Colorado State University say “we remain in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995 (despite the quiet seasons that occurred in 2013-2014).”  They also noted that some of the contributing factors that made the last two years quieter than average in the tropics have lessened.  The Atlantic Ocean Basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

It’s important to note, though, that a below average hurricane season does not mean it won’t be a damaging season.  For example, 1992 had only seven named tropical storms with just one major hurricane.  However, that major hurricane was Andrew which was the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 1969 – and only the third on record.  It was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. History until Hurricane Katrina thirteen years later.

Since 1995, the Mid-Atlantic Region has seen a few significant storms including the remnants of Hurricane Fran in 1996, Floyd in 1999 and Isabel in 2003.  Floyd brought the Mid-Atlantic Region beneficial rainfall after what was a hot and dry summer that saw water restrictions in parts of the region.  Isabel was also the first of eight Category 5 hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Ocean between 2003 and 2007.  Fortunately, none of them made landfall as Category 5 hurricanes.
 
September is the busiest month of the hurricane season when the ocean is typically the warmest and the atmospheric conditions are the most conducive.  The first tropical storm on record to form in April came in 2003.  Ana made history on April 21, 2003, when it was named a tropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean.  Ana’s sustained winds remained below the threshold of 74 mph that would have made it a hurricane.  I will write another column with the official forecast for the 2015 hurricane season from the National Hurricane Center closer to the start of hurricane season.