Pacific Ocean Hurricanes

NOAA's Map of the 2016 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

As the end of hurricane season in the northeastern Pacific Ocean (off the west coast of Mexico) approaches on November 30, it's a good time to reflect upon how busy the season has been.  The eastern Pacific hurricane season starts two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season on May 15 but also runs through November 30.  It’s fitting that Tropical storm Tina dissipated yesterday off the west coast of the Mexico as the end of the season draws closer.

The National Hurricane Center says the eastern Pacific Ocean averages 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.  This season there were 20 tropical storms of which 12 became hurricanes (6 major hurricanes) in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That makes 2016 another busier than average eastern Pacific hurricane season.  Although Hurricane Newton impacted Baja California near the resort town of Cabo San Lucas in early September, it was not an especially damaging storm.

This season’s strongest eastern Pacific hurricane was Seymour, which peaked as a Category 4 with sustained winds of 150 mph last month.  That makes 2016 the first season since 2013 that no Category 5 hurricane developed in the eastern Pacific.  Despite not seeing any this season, the eastern Pacific Ocean has had Category 5 hurricanes in four of the last 7 seasons dating back to 2009. 

On the other hand, the Atlantic Ocean has not had a Category 5 hurricane since 2007 (prior to Hurricane Matthew earlier this fall).  Whether or not the hurricane season is more or less active than usual is irrelevant because a damaging or deadly storm can occur in any season.  A good example of that was the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season that was significantly quieter than average with only one major hurricane (Category 3 or higher).  However, that was Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, which remains one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.

A key difference between the 2015 and 2016 hurricane seasons is that unlike a year ago, there is no major El Nino this year.  Last winter’s significant El Nino event helped create more favorable conditions for tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific.  Meanwhile, that El Nino dissipated earlier this year and transitioned to an episode of La Nina.  NOAA says there’s a 55% chance that La Nina conditions will persist through the 2016-2017 winter season.  I will write about the Atlantic hurricane season closer to November 30 when it ends.