What Can We Expect in February?

NOAA's Temperature Outlook for February 2017

Following the eleventh warmest January and eighth consecutive drier than average month, will February be any different in the Nation’s Capital?  NOAA’s outlook includes the potential for warmer than average weather coupled with an equal chance for above or below average precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic Region.

National Weather Service data indicates that average high and low temperatures go from 44/29 degrees on February 1 to 51/33 on February 28 in Washington, D.C.  February’s warmest observed temperature in the Nation’s Capital was 84 degrees on February 25, 1930, while the coldest temperature was -15 on February 11, 1899.  Although weather records go back to 1871 in Washington, D.C., purists know these figures occurred before National Airport opened in 1941, where weather records have been kept since then.  The warmest February temperature to occur at National Airport was 82 degrees on February 28, 1948, while the coldest temperature there was 5 degrees on February 20, 2015.

Washingtonians have experienced some major winter storms in February such as the President’s Day snowstorms of 1979 and 2003.  More recently “Snowmageddon” occurred in February 2010 and contributed to making the 2009-2010 winter the snowiest on record in Washington, D.C.  It’s interesting to note that 14 of the last 20 Februarys have seen below average snowfall in the Nation’s Capital.  February averages 5.7” of snow in the Nation’s Capital and 2.62” of total precipitation.

Temperatures have been a little more evenly spread over recent decades in the Nation’s Capital with 12 of the last 20 Februarys being warmer than average.  No direct correlation exists between a warmer or colder than average month and above or below average snowfall.  For example, February 1993 was almost 5 degrees colder than average but had below average monthly snowfall (4.1”).  Measurable snowfall has occurred in Washington, D.C. during every February since 2005.

During the last 10 years, Washingtonians have experienced two Februarys (2015, 2007) that rank as the second and third coldest, respectively, since 1941.  At the same time, there has been considerably more record February warmth in the Nation’s Capital in recent decades.  For example, only one record low temperature has been set in Washington, D.C. during the month of February since 1970, while a total of six record highs and four record high-low temperatures have been set just since 2000. 

Unfortunately for snow lovers, no snow is on the horizon in the DC Metro Region.  So area residents who have had their fill of snow following three consecutive snowier than average winters in the DMV will be happy to hear it.