November Weather Trends in the DC Metro Area

NOAA's Temperature Outlook for early November

Average daily high/low temperatures in Washington, D.C. decrease from 63°/45° on November 1 to 52°/37° on November 30.  Despite average high temperatures in the low 60s in early November, there will be several warmer than average days to kick off November in the Nation’s Capital.  That should be pleasing to many DC Area residents who endured a cooler than average second half of October. 

Despite October’s cooler than average finish, October 2018 still finished 3.1° warmer than average.  That made last month the fifth October since 2013 to finish with a monthly average temperature (combining daily high/low temperatures) at least 2.9° above average.  Not since the early 1970s has there been a similar stretch of significantly warmer than average Octobers in Washington, D.C.  The Nation’s Capital had four Octobers that were at least 3° warmer than average between 1970 through 1975.

NOAA expects the warmer than average temperatures to continue in the DC Metro Area until the middle of November.  That’s not to say a chilly day or two isn’t possible, but the trend over much of the first half of the month will be for above average temperatures.  That’s not unusual as 14 of the last 20 November’s have been warmer than average in the Nation’s Capital.  That’s despite three recent cooler than average Novembers in Washington, D.C. from 2012 through 2014. 

November’s warmest temperature on record in Washington, D.C. occurred on November 1, 1974 (86°).  Meanwhile, DC’s coldest November temperature is 11° (November 30, 1929).  While the Nation’s Capital averages 3.17” of rain this month, 15 of the last 20 Novembers have been drier than average.  The last wetter than average November in Washington, D.C. occurred in 2009. 

NOAA’s outlook for November 2018 calls for an increased probability for above average precipitation in the DC Metro Area.  Part of that can be attributed to NOAA’s expectation of a developing El Nino event.  Meanwhile, October 2018 finished with 3.06” of rain making it DC’s first drier than average month since March.  Nevertheless, a total of 52.89” of rain has occurred in the Nation’s Capital since January 1.  That already makes 2018 the ninth wettest year on record with two months left in the year to add to that total.

November is the first of five consecutive months Washington, D.C. averages measurable snowfall with 0.5”.  Longtime Washingtonians might remember that DC’s largest November snowfall occurred on Veteran’s Day in 1987 (11.5”).  However, there is no reliable correlation between measurable November snowfall in Washington, D.C. and what the upcoming winter season will be like.  Measurable November snowfall hasn’t actually occurred in Washington, D.C. since November 1996.