Where Are the Hurricanes ?

Barry was the first Atlantic hurricane of 2019  (Source: NOAA)

While five named storms have developed in the Atlantic Ocean Basin so far in 2019, none have developed into major hurricanes.  This season’s strongest tropical system to date remains Category 1 Hurricane Barry.  Dorian is currently situated in the northeastern Caribbean Sea and was just upgraded to hurricane status at 2 PM.  It's currently a minimal hurricane and the second hurricane of the 2019 season.  Dorian could become a major hurricane in the next few days as it approaches the Bahamas.

Meteorologists define a “major” hurricane as a Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.  The last major hurricane to develop in the Atlantic was Category 5 Hurricane Michael last October.  This June and July were predictably quiet months in the tropical Atlantic this season.  Until the last few days, August had continued that relatively quiet trend.  Tropical Storm Erin was named yesterday and was the fifth named storm of 2019.

No Atlantic hurricanes developed in August 2018 yet last season ultimately went on to be busier than average with eight hurricanes compared to the seasonal average of six.  That helps illustrate that any given hurricane season can become busier than average despite a slow start.  The month of September is commonly the most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season when atmospheric and environmental conditions are the most favorable.  Scientists and weather enthusiasts, alike, look for an uptick in tropical activity in August.

Not since the 2001-2002 seasons have there been consecutive Augusts without any hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean Basin (that includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea).  That’s fairly unusual since NOAA statistics indicate that August is the second busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season with 245 hurricanes between 1851 and 2018.  That’s second only to September (404). 

Having no hurricanes in August doesn’t in any way suggest the rest of the season will be quiet.  Hurricanes Florence and Michael both had major impacts in the United States last September and October, respectively.  Similarly, no Atlantic hurricanes developed in August 2002, yet Hurricane Lili made landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast that October and caused $1.1 billion in damages (unadjusted for inflation).  All three hurricane names were subsequently retired by the World Meteorological Organization for being destructive and deadly.

All tropical storms and hurricanes bear watching regardless of intensity.  Earlier this month, NOAA updated its hurricane forecast for the remainder of the 2019 season that runs through November.  It is expecting 2019 to finish as a near average season.  There have been five named storms (including Dorian and Erin) so far in 2019.  An average season features 12 tropical storms of which six become hurricanes and two become “major.”  The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean will be given the name “Fernand.”