Hurricane Lorenzo near peak intensity (Source: NOAA) |
NOAA was expecting a near average hurricane season
when it began on June 1. However, once
the weak episode of El Nino dissipated early in the summer NOAA revised its
forecast in early August. El Nino
conditions tend to correlate with less favorable conditions for tropical
development in the Atlantic Ocean Basin.
So it wasn’t a surprise than NOAA’s updated forecast called for a
slightly busier than average hurricane season.
The two most significant Atlantic storms of the season
to this point have been Hurricanes Dorian and Lorenzo. Both achieved Category 5 intensity and that
made 2019 the fourth consecutive year one has developed in the Atlantic Ocean. The previous record for most consecutive
seasons with a Category 5 hurricane was three, from 2003 – 2005. Although Dorian devastated parts of the
Bahamas at peak intensity, it weakened considerably before impacting the
southeastern U.S. coastline.
Nevertheless, Dorian still had significant impacts in the United States.
While not a threat to the United States, Lorenzo
remains a noteworthy storm for becoming the easternmost point an Atlantic
hurricane has reached Category 5 intensity (45°W). It also put this season in relatively rare
company as one of a total of only seven seasons with at least two Category 5
Atlantic hurricanes (1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007 and 2017). This is the fourth time “Lorenzo” has been a
named storm in the Atlantic Ocean Basin and the 2019 version is easily the most
intense.
Tropical storms and hurricanes only develop when
atmospheric and environmental conditions are favorable. September is the busiest month of the
Atlantic hurricane season so it’s common to see hurricanes develop. October is also an active month of the
hurricane season that’s seen a number of significant storms such as Hurricanes
Mitch, Wilma and Matthew. While all
three reached Category 5 status, none of them impacted the United States at
that intensity. It remains to be seen how
busy the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season will be before the season ends
November 30.
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