Benefits of a Warm Spring

The 2019-2020 winter was DC’s seventh warmest on record.  During the three-month period from December 2019 through February 2020, Washington, D.C. had more days with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s (eight) than in the 30s (six).  To add to that, only 26 days were colder than average in the Nation’s Capital during that timeframe.  

The first third of March has continued the warmer than average trend in the DC Metro Area.  Nine of the first 10 days of March had above average temperatures.  Consequently, the National Park Service expects the famous Yoshino Cherry Blossoms along the Tidal Basin to reach peak bloom between March 21 and March 24.  That’s more than a week earlier than the average date of April 1.  “Peak bloom” is defined as when 70% of the blossoms emerge.

How warm or cold the winter and early spring are determines when the blooms reach their peak.  The earliest that peak bloom occurred was March 15, 1990.  That was an unusual winter since November and December 1989 were both very cold and snowy, but January, February and March 1990 were each much warmer than average.  High temperatures were in the 80s on five consecutive days from March 12 – 16, 1990, which helped the blossoms reach peak bloom on March 15.  

By comparison, the latest the cherry blossoms reached peak bloom was on April 18, 1958.  That’s because February and March 1958 were both very cold and snowy in the Nation’s Capital.  They were more than 5° colder than average with a two-month snow total of 27.8”.  More recently, Washingtonians experienced colder and snowier than average February and March’s in both 2014 and 2015.  That contributed to a relatively late peak bloom of April 10 in both years.  

When the buds are developing on the cherry trees, temperatures in the 20s for any length of time can damage them.  Such was the case in March 2017 when, according to the National Park Service, “...a late frost that occurred between March 14 and March 16 caused roughly half of the blossoms to be lost.”  Once they reach peak bloom, gusty winds can reduce the length of peak bloom.  Given ideal conditions, peak bloom can last roughly five to seven days, giving ample opportunity for people to enjoy their splendor. 

By coincidence, this year’s National Cherry Blossom Festival is scheduled to begin on March 20.  That coincides almost perfectly with the estimated peak bloom of the cherry blossoms between March 21 and 24.  Fortunately, no freezing temperatures are expected along the Tidal Basin during the next 10 days and that bodes well for the cherry blossoms.