Atlantic Hurricane Trends

Hurricane Michael, October 2018  (Source: NOAA)

While there are early indicators that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could be an active one, that doesn't necessarily mean it will also be a destructive one. There have been several active seasons with little or no direct impacts to the United States by tropical systems. On the other hand, there have been quiet seasons that have produced catastrophic storms. The overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is less important than storm track.

Such was the case in 2010 when there were a total of 19 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean Basin. That's compared to the seasonal average of 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 to 3 major hurricanes. A hurricane is considered "major" when sustained winds reach 111/+ mph, making it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fortunately, despite the high number of named storms in 2010, none made landfall in the United States.

The following seasons of 2011 and 2012 also produced 19 tropical storms each in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, but the United States was impacted.  Hurricane Irene was a destructive and deadly storm along the East Coast in late August 2011. However, Irene was overshadowed by "Superstorm" Sandy just 14 months later. Although not officially a hurricane anymore when it made landfall, Sandy’s impacts were largely the same with a devastating coastal storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rainfall well inland in October 2012.

By comparison, the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season had only one major hurricane. Unfortunately, that was Hurricane Andrew which made landfall in South Florida as a rare Category 5 hurricane. It surpassed 1989's Hurricane Hugo to become the costliest U.S. hurricane on record, a distinction Andrew had until Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Andrew was also the first Category 5 to make landfall in the United States since Camille in 1969.  Andrew remained the last Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States until Hurricane Michael in 2018.

Some experts see the potential for an above average 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.  Even if it is a very active season, any tropical storms or hurricanes that develop could remain offshore. Conversely, it could be a quieter than average season with one or more landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes.  Storm track is something that cannot be predicted with any specificity until an actual storm develops.  The first named Atlantic storm of the 2020 season will be Arthur.