Looking Ahead to Summer

NOAA's Temperature Outlook for the 2020 Summer

The start of meteorological summer arrives on June 1 and is comprised of the three-month period of June, July and August.  NOAA’s three-month outlook issued on May 21 calls for warmer and wetter than average conditions in the Mid-Atlantic Region.  That’s in contrast to the long stretches of cooler and wetter than average weather in April and May.

During the six-week period from April 10 through May 21, 32 of the 42 days were cooler than average in the Nation’s Capital.  In that time, measurable rainfall occurred on exactly half of those days and added up to 7.29”.  Although a trace of rainfall is officially too little to measure, there were another 10 days since April 1 that DC had a trace of rain, which helped give the illusion of a lot of cloudy and damp weather. 

The first three weeks of May were quite cool in the Nation’s Capital with 16 cooler than average days.  Quite remarkably, there were more days (three) with highs in the 50s, than there were days in the 80s (two).  The final third of May 2020 will feature temperatures more characteristic of early June with highs in the 80s.  That will mitigate the impact of the cool start to the month in calculating the average monthly temperature.

Some may wonder if the dominant weather pattern of the spring is a reliable indicator of what the summer will be like.  The truth is not really.  One case in point was the spring of 2016.  May 2016 finished 2.1° cooler than average.  Moreover, Washingtonians didn’t experience the first 90° heat of 2016 until June 11.  That’s a few weeks after DC’s average first date of 90° highs.  But, the 2016 summer still finished as DC’s third hottest on record, behind only 2010 and 2011.
 

There hasn’t been any 90° heat so far this year.  NOAA’s seasonal forecasts look at a variety of factors such as the presence of El Nino or La Nina.  Following the predominantly cooler and wetter than average weather over the last couple of weeks, most DC Area residents would welcome warmer temperature.  Just not record-setting temperatures.