Hurricane Season is Off to a Fast Start

The National Hurricane Center just named the sixth tropical storm of the season, Fay, which was near the North Carolina coast yesterday.  That made it the earliest sixth-named storm of the season, eclipsing the previous record set by Tropical Storm Franklin on July 22, 2005.  To add to that, Tropical Storm Edouard also set a new record for earliest fifth storm in the Atlantic Ocean when it was named on July 5. 

Before more comparisons to the record-setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season are made, it’s important to differentiate between the two seasons.  In 2005, three of the first five named storms reached hurricane intensity.  Hurricane Dennis made landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane roughly 10 months after Hurricane Ivan made landfall in the same area.  Hurricane Emily was even stronger and became the first Category 5 hurricane to develop in the Atlantic Ocean during July. 

By comparison, no hurricanes have developed so far this year.  The strongest tropical storm to date was Tropical Storm Arthur on May 18, which had sustained winds of 60 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 991 millibars (mb).  Storms that develop early in the season are often weaker since conditions tend not to be as favorable for development as they are later in the season.  A large plume of Saharan dust also spread across much of the tropical Atlantic during the second half of June.  Some of it reached portions of the central and southern United States, making for some superb sunrises and sunsets.  However, high levels of dust in the atmosphere in tropical regions serves to help limit tropical storm development.

There isn’t a correlation between an active start to the hurricane season, such as 2020 has had, and a busier than average season overall.  For example, four named storms developed in June and July 1997.  Despite the fast start to the 1997 season, August was very quiet without a single tropical storm, and the season finished with below average activity.

On the other hand, last season got off to a quiet start with only two named storms through July 31.  But, 2019 finished as a very active season with 18 tropical storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.  Last year also became one of only six Atlantic hurricane seasons to see at least two Category 5 hurricanes (Dorian, Lorenzo), according to the National Hurricane Center. 

Colorado State University recently updated its seasonal hurricane forecast and now expects a total of 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.  The Atlantic averages approximately 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in an “average” season.  Hurricane season runs through November 30.