Hurricane Season 2021

 

There is currently only one active tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean Basin.  Hurricane Larry is expected to curve northward into the central Atlantic Ocean and remain east of Bermuda.  Larry became the 12^th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on September 1.  There have been 12 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes including 3 major hurricanes so far this season.

Prior to this season, the Atlantic Ocean averaged 12 tropical storm of which 6 became hurricanes, with 3 major hurricanes.  That was based on statistics from 1981 – 2010.  However, starting this season NOAA updated its annual average number of storms to reflect the 30-year period of 1991 – 2020.  An “average” annual Atlantic hurricane season now features a total of 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.  A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph around the center of circulation.

Last season was the busiest hurricane season on record for the Atlantic Ocean with a seasonal total of 30 named tropical storms.  While 2021 has been busier than average, it hasn’t been as busy as last season.  The 2020 “L” storm (“Laura”) developed on August 20.  Meanwhile, Larry was named a tropical storm on September 1, 2021, more than 10 days later than Laura.  The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season had an unusually active final two months with five major hurricanes after October 1. 

This season is already ahead of where last season was on Labor Day Weekend with three major hurricanes, compared with only one (Hurricane Laura) last year.  That has little bearing, however, on how the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will finish as a whole.

The overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is less important than where they track.  There have been above average Atlantic hurricane seasons when the United States remained relatively unscathed without any significant impacts such as in 2010.  Other seasons have been quieter than average, but the United States had catastrophic impacts.  Such was the case in 1992 when there was only one major hurricane.  However, that was Hurricane Andrew that was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history until Katrina in 2005. 

Although final tallies won’t be available for several weeks, if not months, Hurricane Ida has been both the costliest and deadliest hurricane so far this season.  While September is the busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, it continues through November 30, so a lot of time remains to be watching the tropics.  Whenever the next tropical storm develops, it will be named “Mindy.”