November’s Diverse Start

 

D.C.’s recent roller coaster of temperatures will continue for another week as temperatures plummet this weekend to levels more characteristic of early December.  That follows above average temperatures for much of last week.  Lots of large swings in temperatures are common during the month of November as late fall segues into winter.

November 2021 got off to a cold start with below average temperatures in the Nation’s Capital.  Low temperatures at National Airport, D.C.’s official weather reporting site, were in the 30s on five consecutive mornings through November 7.  According to the National Weather Service, that hasn’t occurred during the first week of November since 2002.  It was also D.C.’s coldest first week of November since 2012.

While no record lows were set, D.C.’s temperatures the first week of November felt particularly cold following the second warmest October in the Nation’s Capital.  Temperatures rebounded spectacularly this past week with above average temperatures on five consecutive days, November 8 – November 12.  Despite that, November’s average monthly temperature (combining daily high and low temperatures) is still below average.

The first two weeks of November have been dry in the Nation’s Capital, with measurable rainfall on only two days for a combined total of 0.74”.  Although no appreciable rainfall is expected until late next week, it’s too early to assume this month will finish drier than average.  While two of the last three November’s have been wetter than average in Washington, D.C., eight of the last 10 have been drier than average.

My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 Weather Team released our winter weather outlook last night for the upcoming 2021-2022 season.  It took into account the La Nina conditions that currently exist.  Washingtonians may know that many of the snowiest winters have occurred during moderate to strong episodes of El Nino (e.g., 2002-2003 and 2009-2010).  The 1995-1996 winter was a notable exception when a moderate intensity La Nina was present, similar to the current episode of La Nina.   

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects near to below average temperatures to continue for the next one to two weeks with near average precipitation.  That would be unlike last November that was a very warm and wet month in Washington, D.C.  Given the large fluctuations between warmer and cooler than average temperatures and predominantly dry days, November 2021 appears likely to finish with near to slightly below average temperatures and rainfall in Washington, D.C.