D.C.’s Cold and Snowy January

 

Photo Credit: Lee Laudicina

D.C. Area winter weather enthusiasts have had a lot to cheer about since January 2022 has become D.C.’s snowiest month in six years.  This month will also finish nearly 3° colder than average.  The combination of snow and below average temperatures brought an end to two noteworthy weather streaks in Washington, D.C.

Last winter, NOAA updated its daily and monthly temperature and precipitation averages to reflect the 30-year period of 1991-2020 rather than 1981-2010.  D.C.’s current average January temperature is warmer than it used to be since the 2010s were a warmer decade than the 1980s were.  This month has had 20 days that were colder than average.  D.C.’s average monthly temperature through January 30 is 34.7° (combining daily high and low temperatures) which is 2.7° below average.

Washingtonians had a nearly three-year streak since the last time temperatures were colder than 22° at January’s onset.  Before this month, the last time the temperature fell below 22° at Reagan National Airport was on February 2, 2019 (18°).  However, D.C. has now had six days that low temperatures were below 22°, including four days in the teens, since January 15.  To add to that, D.C.’s second nearly three-year streak without a high temperature in the 20s ended on January 21.  D.C.’s high of 27° on January 21 was D.C.’s first high temperature in the 20s since February 1, 2019 (24°).

This month’s average temperature of 34.7° is comparable to D.C.’s January 2016 average of 34.9°.  Since both January’s followed unusually warm December’s, the cold felt particularly sharp.  December 2021 was D.C.’s second warmest on record, behind only December 2015. 

D.C.’s monthly snowfall total of 12.3” is over 7.0” above average, making January 2022 the snowiest month in the Nation’s Capital since January 2016.  D.C.’s combined snow total for the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 winters is 6.0”.  So, January 2022 had more snow in Washington, D.C. than the last two winters combined. With a rainfall total (including liquid snowfall equivalent) of 3.68”, January 2022 was a wetter than average month overall.

January 2022 is poised to become only the third in the last decade that January will finish as a colder and snowier than average month.  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects February to be a warmer than average month in the D.C. Metro Area with near average precipitation.

The Importance of Storm Track

 

Some of DC’s largest snowstorms have occurred during the second half of January, including the infamous “Knickerbocker” Storm of 1922 and, more recently, a record-setting snowstorm in January 2016.  A high degree of skill is required when forecasting snow in the D.C. Metro Area given the complexity of winter storms and the unique geography of the Mid-Atlantic Region.  

Several of the record snow events in the Mid-Atlantic Region over the last 20 years were well-forecast in advance.  For example, the January 22-23, 2016 event tied for fourth largest snowfall in the Nation’s Capital and was first mentioned in forecasts the previous weekend.  Also, area meteorologists, including my colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team, gave residents several days advance notice of high impact storms in February 2010 and December 2009.

These storms were such blockbuster events that the computer models meteorologists use were able to identify the seeds that became the storms days in advance.  The farther out from an event you are, there is a higher degree of fluctuation between computer model runs.  That leads to an old adage in the weather community that “the trend is your friend.”  If several models show a particular storm or event over several runs, then meteorologists have more confidence that said event might occur.

The ideal track for a winter storm to bring the D.C. Metro Area appreciable snowfall is just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast.  Whether the storm develops along the U.S. Gulf Coast or off the southeastern coast of the United States – as this weekend’s Nor’Easter did – is irrelevant, so long as the track is close enough to the coast to bring the Nation’s Capital accumulating snow.  However, if the storm develops or tracks to close to the coast, then it could displace the cold air in place. 

There were several notable near misses in the Nation’s Capital when Washingtonians either saw no precipitation or what began as snow changed to rain.  The winter storm on January 16 began as a few inches of snow in the D.C. Metro Area, but changed to rain after sunset as daytime highs reached the low 40s.  That was because the storm track was too far west for the cold air to remain in place.  The area of low pressure essentially tracked up the Chesapeake Bay during the January 16 event, so the changeover to rain occurred.

This weekend’s Nor’Easter developed and tracked just far enough east to prevent the Nation’s Capital from seeing significant snowfall.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston will see their largest snowfalls of the winter.  There have been several notable storms over the last 10 – 15 years that have tracked just far enough east where the D.C. Metro Area saw little or no snow, while cities to our north got walloped with snow.  One such example occurred on December 26-27, 2010.  A developing area of low-pressure didn’t intensify rapidly until it was approaching Long Island.  This kept the heavy snow from roughly Atlantic City northward through New York City.  The snow with this storm had a sharp western edge with areas west of the Chesapeake Bay that got no snow. 

Notable late-January D.C. Area Weather Events

 

January is the coldest month of the year according to NOAA and is a close second behind February for highest average amount of monthly snowfall in the Nation’s Capital.  In the Nation’s Capital there have been many high impact winter weather events during the second half of January.

2016: The Blizzard of 2016 occurred on January 22-23 and tied with “Snowmageddon” of February 2010 for D.C.’s fourth largest snow event on record with 17.8”.  Making this storm even more amazing is how it followed D.C.’s warmest December on record.  Without the “Blizzard of 2016” as it was dubbed, the Nation’s Capital would have finished the 2015-2016 winter season with only 4.8”.  That’s roughly a third of D.C. seasonal snowfall average (13.7”).  This illustrates how the right ingredients need to come together only once to create a major winter storm as was the case with the “Blizzard of 2016.”

2014: January 2014 remains D.C.’s coldest January of the last decade.  Washingtonians endured seven days with high temperatures at or below freezing.  Record snowfall occurred on January 21 with 3.8” at National Airport and 8.5” at Dulles.  It was followed by a record low-high temperature of 19° on January 22, 2014.  That remains the last time Washington, D.C. had a high temperature in the teens. 

2011:  Dubbed “Carmageddon” because several inches of heavy, wet snow snarled the evening rush hour and caused many folks to get stranded in their vehicles overnight or abandon them altogether.  While there weren’t historic snow accumulations, the heavy, wet snow came at the worst time as road crews weren’t able to do much given the high volume of traffic during the p.m. rush.  National Airport officially saw 5.0”, while daily snowfall records were observed at Dulles (7.3”) and BWI Airports (7.6”).  

2000: D.C.’s “surprise” January 25 snow event remains one of the larger failures of numerical weather prediction (computer weather modeling).  Originally expected to stay to our south and go out to sea, this storm instead came far enough north to bring 9”-18” of snow to the Nation’s Capital.  Not until late in the evening on Monday, January 24, did D.C. Area meteorologists update the forecast to include accumulating snowfall.  In an era before social media, most folks who had gone to bed woke up Tuesday morning to a surprise snow day.  Daily January 25 snowfall records occurred at all three D.C. Area airports in what was the largest snow event in the Nation’s Capital in more than four years since the Blizzard of 1996.

DCA (National): 9.3”
Dulles (IAD): 10.3”
BWI: 14.9”   

Rare January Severe Weather

 

January 16, 2022 Severe Reports  (Source: NOAA)

The atmospheric ingredients required for severe weather are most common during the spring and summer months.  Widespread severe weather outbreaks are rare, by comparison, in January when cold and dry weather often dominate large areas of the United States.  However, every so often the tension between differing air masses that facilitates large severe weather outbreaks occurs during the winter. 

NOAA defines a “severe” thunderstorm as one that has one or more of the following: wind gusts of at least 58 mph; hail 1”/+ in diameter; or a tornado.

2022:  Last weekend’s winter storm that brought the D.C. Metro Area its third episode of accumulating snowfall this month also sparked severe weather elsewhere.  On January 15 and January 16, it caused 8 confirmed tornadoes, along with 26 reports of severe wind gusts.  Three injuries were reported but there were, fortunately, no fatalities.  Most of the tornadoes developed in Florida, with the strongest being an EF-2 that had estimated winds of 111-135 mph on January 16.  This tornado outbreak in Florida has been compared to the deadly one in Florida of February 1998 when seven overnight tornadoes claimed 42 lives.

2020:  A massive two-day severe weather outbreak occurred on January 10 – 11 with nearly 1,200 severe weather reports.  Almost 1,100 of those reports were for severe wind gusts from Texas to Virginia.  However, there were 87 confirmed tornadoes during this event with 11 confirmed fatalities and 30 reported injuries.  This would be a significant severe weather outbreak for any month, but it stands out during the month of January for two reasons.  Not only did a significant amount of severe weather occur, but it happened over an unusually large geographic area for January. 

2019:  A smaller, but no less significant severe weather outbreak, occurred January 19 from Louisiana to Florida.  There were a total of 73 severe weather reports, including 11 tornadoes.  Although six injuries were reported, this outbreak had no fatalities. 

2018:  Another outbreak occurred on January 21 when NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center received 43 severe thunderstorm reports.  What made this event unusual is that it occurred from Missouri southward to eastern Texas.  Environmental conditions normally aren’t favorable for severe weather in the central United States during the winter months.  Fortunately, no injuries or fatalities were reported.