2022: Hurricane Season Update

 

The Atlantic hurricane season spans six months of the year from June – November.  The first half of the 2022 season has been extremely quiet.  Not only have no named tropical storms developed in the Atlantic since Colin dissipated on July 3, but no hurricanes have developed yet this year.

That’s despite NOAA’s updated forecast earlier this month calling for a near average seasonal total of 14 – 20 tropical storms, of which 6 – 10 become hurricanes, with 3 – 5 “major” hurricanes.  An “average” Atlantic hurricane season has 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.  A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.  Although it was initially expected to be another above average season, primarily due to an ongoing episode of La Nina, NOAA’s early August update to its seasonal forecast is less than what they were expecting earlier in the year.  

A significant amount of dry air and atmospheric dust has continued to pour into the tropical Atlantic from West Africa.  That’s helped create unfavorable conditions for development over a wide swath of the Atlantic.  As a result, the Atlantic has been as quiet as it’s been in decades.  2022 is the first season since 1982 that no named storms have occurred between July 2 and August 26 according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher, Dr. Philip Klotzbach.  It’s also only the fifth time that’s happened since 1950.  The last time the entire month of August has gone by with no named tropical storms was 1997. 

The 1997 Atlantic hurricane season, unlike this season, was expected to be a quieter than average one (it finished with 8 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major Atlantic hurricane).  However, as recent seasons have shown, things in the tropical Atlantic can ramp up in a hurry.  The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, got markedly more active in late-August, starting with Hurricane Harvey.  September 2017 saw four major Atlantic hurricanes, including two Category 5 powerhouses (Irma and Maria). 

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season had more named tropical storms than any season on record.  It was a back-loaded season with four major hurricanes after October 15.  That’s not to say this season will feature similar trends as 2017 or 2020, but atmospheric and environmental conditions are the most conducive for tropical development in September.  If current trends hold, then some impressive benchmarks for a quiet hurricane season will be met this season.