Hurricane Michael, October 2018 (Source: NOAA) |
While Ian’s final track is unclear, it’s increasingly likely that it
will be an intense and high impact hurricane.
Ian’s effects will be far-reaching and will impact the United States
well inland. By coincidence, the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) has retired more “I” named Atlantic storms
than any other letter. There are some
storms Ian could resemble when it’s all said and done.
Michael (2018): Hurricane Michael
was only the fourth Category
5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States. It was the first to do so since Hurricane
Andrew 26 years earlier and it remains one of the few hurricanes that
intensified up until its landfall. Michael reached its peak
intensity as it made landfall along the Florida panhandle
with sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 919
millibars (mb). Michael was the first
Category 4 or 5 storm to hit that part of Florida and did $29 billion in
damages according to NOAA (in 2022 dollars).
Charley (2004): A relatively compact
hurricane, Charley was the second major hurricane of the 2004 season. Initially, it was feared that Charley would
make landfall in the major urban area of Tampa-St
Petersburg. However, its path shifted and it came ashore south of
Tampa near the town of Punta Gorda on August 13. Like Michael, Charley also made landfall at
its peak intensity as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Charley did roughly $24.6 billion in damages (2022 dollars).
Opal (1995): Hurricane Opal
underwent a period of rapid
intensification while over a warm core ring in the Gulf of
Mexico. In less than 24 hours, Opal went from being a minimal hurricane to
a strong Category 4 with sustained winds of 150 mph. Its minimum central air pressure of 916 mb set
an Atlantic record for lowest air pressure in a hurricane that didn’t reach
Category 5 intensity. Although Opal weakened to Category 3 intensity
before its October
4 landfall in the Florida panhandle, it was still quite destructive
and deadly with several dozen fatalities.
Opal’s remnants brought heavy rain and severe weather to the
Mid-Atlantic Region on October 5.
If a hurricane is a
relatively fast-moving storm, it can gain or maintain strength until it makes
landfall. However, it’s quite common for hurricanes to weaken as they make landfall due
to a variety of factors such as shallower water, as well as interaction with a
given land mass.
Current forecast projections for Hurricane Ian should remind longtime Floridians
of Hurricanes Charley, Michael and Opal.
If Ian veers east, then it will move over central Florida like Charley
did. However, if Ian travels further
north, then it could make landfall in the Florida Panhandle like Michael and Opal
did.
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