Destructive Gulf Hurricanes

 

Hurricane Michael, October 2018  (Source: NOAA)

While Ian’s final track is unclear, it’s increasingly likely that it will be an intense and high impact hurricane.  Ian’s effects will be far-reaching and will impact the United States well inland.  By coincidence, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has retired more “I” named Atlantic storms than any other letter.  There are some storms Ian could resemble when it’s all said and done.

Michael (2018): Hurricane Michael was only the fourth Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States.  It was the first to do so since Hurricane Andrew 26 years earlier and it remains one of the few hurricanes that intensified up until its landfall.  Michael reached its peak intensity as it made landfall along the Florida panhandle with sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 919 millibars (mb).  Michael was the first Category 4 or 5 storm to hit that part of Florida and did $29 billion in damages according to NOAA (in 2022 dollars).

Charley (2004): A relatively compact hurricane, Charley was the second major hurricane of the 2004 season.  Initially, it was feared that Charley would make landfall in the major urban area of Tampa-St Petersburg.  However, its path shifted and it came ashore south of Tampa near the town of Punta Gorda on August 13.  Like Michael, Charley also made landfall at its peak intensity as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph.  Hurricane Charley did roughly $24.6 billion in damages (2022 dollars).

Opal (1995): Hurricane Opal underwent a period of rapid intensification while over a warm core ring in the Gulf of Mexico.  In less than 24 hours, Opal went from being a minimal hurricane to a strong Category 4 with sustained winds of 150 mph.  Its minimum central air pressure of 916 mb set an Atlantic record for lowest air pressure in a hurricane that didn’t reach Category 5 intensity.  Although Opal weakened to Category 3 intensity before its October 4 landfall in the Florida panhandle, it was still quite destructive and deadly with several dozen fatalities.  Opal’s remnants brought heavy rain and severe weather to the Mid-Atlantic Region on October 5.

If a hurricane is a relatively fast-moving storm, it can gain or maintain strength until it makes landfall.  However, it’s quite common for hurricanes to weaken as they make landfall due to a variety of factors such as shallower water, as well as interaction with a given land mass.

Current forecast projections for Hurricane Ian should remind longtime Floridians of Hurricanes Charley, Michael and Opal.  If Ian veers east, then it will move over central Florida like Charley did.  However, if Ian travels further north, then it could make landfall in the Florida Panhandle like Michael and Opal did.