DC’s Highly Variable and Dynamic Weather

 

Bethesda, Maryland

April has gotten off to an unusually warm start despite being cooler than average the last two days.  As the upcoming week wears on temperatures will gradually warm to where they were last week with highs in the low to mid 80s.  No rain chances are in the forecast before next weekend in the Nation’s Capital.

There was an average of between 3 – 4 April days in the 80s over the last 30 years in the Nation’s Capital, according to NOAA.  Having two such days so early in the month helped set the tone for what NOAA expects to be a warmer than average month.  That’s in contrast to last April, which got off to a chilly start with below average temperatures on 9 of the first 11 days in Washington, D.C.  Despite a warmer than average second half of the month, April 2022 finished 1.3° cooler than average. 

The Nation’s Capital has had a pattern over the last several years where April temperatures have alternated being warmer and cooler than average.  For example, April 2017 and April 2019 were DC’s warmest and third warmest, while April 2018 was DC’s coolest since 1997.  Prior to now, the Nation’s Capital hasn’t gone three consecutive years without a warmer than average April since 2003 – 2005.

Something almost equally rare in the Nation’s Capital during the month of April are highs in the 90s and lows at or below freezing.  Washingtonians have averaged roughly one 90° April day every three years and one April day 32° or colder roughly twice every five years over the last three decades.  Since no 90° April heat occurred in the Nation’s Capital since 2017, the city is due for it.  Meanwhile, it was 31° more recently at National Airport on April 2, 2021.

Like temperatures, April rainfall has also been highly variable over the last few years.  While last April was wetter than average, Washington, D.C. hasn’t had consecutive wetter than average April’s since 2008-2009.  However, given the dry start to the month with only 0.29” of rainfall-to-date and no rain expected over the upcoming week, it’s possible DC won’t see a wetter than average April this year either.

NOAA’s temperature outlook over the next 8-14 days is for warmer than average temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic Region with near average rainfall.  The longer the month goes with below average rainfall, the harder it is to finish with average rainfall.  My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 Weather Team will continue to monitor the latest weather conditions for the Nation’s Capital.