Weather Quiz

 

2015-2016 winter in Bethesda, Maryland

True or False. 

The nation's capital has only had one snowier than average winter in the last 8 years.

DC's unusual February warmth

 

A fine February day at Great Falls, Maryland

February 2024 has continued this winter's trend for warmer than average weather in the nation's capital. As the month comes to a close, it is well-positioned to finish among DC's Top 10 warmest on record. There have only been three cooler than average days so far this month.

Today’s high temperature in the nation’s capital reached the 60s for the fifth time this month; almost double the 30-year average of three such days. There haven't been any days with highs in the 70s or 80s this month. That's what makes this month so unique. February 2024 will finish among DC's warmest, not for featuring extreme, record-setting warmth, but rather for above average temperatures with a lack of any sustained cooler than average weather. 

Although there were no record highs this month at National Airport, DC's official weather reporting site, several record highs occurred at Dulles Airport. Record highs of 65° and 69° were observed as Dulles on February 10 and 26, respectively. Meanwhile, record high-low temperatures occurred on consecutive days from February 9 - 11 at Dulles. By comparison, DC’s highest temperature so far this month was 68° on February 26.

A powerful cold front will pass through the DC Metro Area today, ushering in much cooler weather tonight and tomorrow. In fact, Leap Day tomorrow could become only the fourth cooler than average day of the month. Very little cold air has reached the Mid-Atlantic Region this month. That’s largely due to an unfavorable position of the jet stream, which has been the dominant weather story of the 2023-2024 winter season and has made the predominantly warmer than average weather possible.

DC's monthly average temperature, combining daily high and low temperatures, through February 27 is 44.1°. This month is expected to finish among the five warmest February's at Dulles with an average monthly temperature of 42.1°. With only 0.1" of snowfall, this month will become DC's ninth consecutive February with below average snowfall. It will also finish with below average rainfall.

DC’s Warmest February’s (Source: National Weather Service)

1. 47.7° (2017)
2. 46.9° (1976)
3. 46.7° (2023)
4. 45.3° (2018)
5. 45.2° (1990)
6. 44.7° (1997)
7. 44.4° (2012)
8. 43.8° (2020, 1984, 1949)

 

Warmest February’s at Dulles Airport (Source: National Weather Service)

1. 44.8° (2017)
2. 44.6° (2023)
3. 42.4° (2018)
4. 42.2° (1990)
5. 41.4° (2020)

DC Area's wild snowfall trends

 

A snowy morning in Bethesda, Maryland

As DC enters the final days of February, the end of "meteorological winter" is almost here on February 29. Although the nation's capital had a snowier than average January, the rest of the winter has produced very little snowfall. My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 Weather Team don't expect any more snowfall this month, making this the ninth consecutive February with below average snowfall. That underscores the need to discuss some key winter weather trends in the DC Metro Area.

The nation's capital has seen above average snowfall in only 5 of the last 20 winters, according to NOAA. Despite that trend four of DC’s 10 largest winter storms have occurred just since 2003. In fact, DC’s snowiest winter on record was in 2009-2010 and featured two of its largest winter storms. February 2010 finished as DC’s second snowiest February and second snowiest month overall, with 32.1”. More than half of that total came with “Snowmageddon” (17.8”). 

Seven of DC’s 10 snowiest months ever owe their place on that memorable list in large part to having had one of DC’s 10 largest snowstorms. For example, January 1928 ranks as DC’s third snowiest month with 31.5”, with 28” of that during the "Knickerbocker Storm," DC's largest snowstorm on record.

While meteorological winter spans December, January and February, DC averages accumulating snowfall in the five consecutive months starting in November. There have been several examples in recent years of heavier snowfall occurring either in late fall or March. March was DC’s snowiest month of the year on five occasions since the 2008-2009 winter.

These trends were factored into NOAA’s updated data set for what constitutes “average” weather conditions. NOAA updated its running 30-year period to 1991-2020, replacing 1981-2010.  As a result, the nation’s capital averages less snowfall than it did previously.  That’s largely due to the fact that the 1980s were a snowier decade than the 2010s. 

Another factor was the increased urban heat island effect as Washington, D.C. has become more urbanized and, thus, warmer than in previous decades.  Snow lovers shouldn’t fret, however, as the right ingredients need to come together only once to create a major winter storm.

DC’s snowiest months with any of the Top 10 snowfalls that occurred in those months

1. 35.2” (February 1899): 20” (February 12-14)
2. 32.1” (February 2010): 17.8” (February 5-6)
3. 31.5” (January 1928): 28” (January 27-29)
4. 30.6” (February 1979): 18.7” (February 18-19)
5. 28.7” (February 2003): 16.4” (February 16-18)
6. 24.4” (January 1935)
7. 23.8” (January 1996): 17.3” (January 7-9)
8. 22.6” (January 1918)
9. 21.0” (February 1983): 16.6” (February 10-11)
10. 20.8” (January 1987)

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DC’s snowiest winters (Source: NOAA)

1. 56.1” (2009-2010)
2. 54.4” (1898-1899)
3. 46.0” (1995-1996)
4. 42.5” (1921-1922)
5. 41.7” (1891-1892)
6. 41.0” (1904-1905)
7. 40.4” (2002-2003, 1957-1958)
9. 40.3” (1960-1961)
10. 39.8” (1910-1911)

Will DC see any more snow this winter ?

 

DC Area snow, March 2018

The odds for appreciable snowfall decrease significantly in the nation’s capital after Presidents Day. However, accumulating snowfall has occurred as late in the season as April. Check out this story I co-wrote for the WUSA9 website for details.

Weather Quiz

 

A snowy January day in suburban Washington, D.C.

With February 2024 poised to finish with below average snowfall, it's a good time to ask how many snowier than average months the nation's capital has seen since the record-setting "Blizzard of 2016?"

A. 3

B. 5

C. 6

D. 9