February is losing its bite

 

February 2017 was DC's warmest on record

The dry and mild start to February in the nation's capital is reminiscent of recent February's. Although it is DC's snowiest month of the year on average, there hasn't been a snowier than average February since 2015. Recent February's have also lacked any sustained stretches of colder than average weather across the DMV. 

Six of DC's 10 largest winter storms were in February. The 14th anniversary of "Snowmageddon" was earlier this week. However, a trend has developed in recent years for below average February snowfall in the nation's capital. There have been only two snowier than average February's (2014, 2015) since 2010.

That trend led DC's February snowfall average to decrease to from 5.7" to 5.0" when NOAA updated its climate records to reflect the period of 1991-2020 (replacing 1981-2010). While Washingtonians have experienced below average February snowfall for eight consecutive years now, February hasn't been without beneficial rainfall in that time. Six of the last 10 February's have been wetter than average, despite being DC's driest month of the year historically.

Seven of the last eight February's have also been warmer than average in the nation's capital. That includes DC's warmest (2017) and third warmest (2023) February's. Multiple record highs have been set in the nation's capital in that time. DC's only colder than average February since 2015 occurred in 2021.

Having such unusually warm February's isn't without consequences. Allergy season began earlier than normal the last few years due to the predominantly mild February weather. In a rare occurrence, February was warmer than March in the nation's capital in both 2017 and 2018.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center excepts a shift to cooler than average temperatures for the DMV next week. The right ingredients need to come together only once to produce a significant winter storm in the nation's capital. So, despite DC's recent February weather history, it's too early for local winter weather enthusiasts to give up hope.