March warmth boosts DC's cherry blossoms

 

Cherry blossoms represent the arrival of spring

The 2023-2024 winter tied for DC's sixth warmest on record. During the three-month period from December 2023 through February 2024, the nation's capital had only 21 days that were colder than average. 

The first third of March has continued the warmer than average trend in the DC Metro Area. Nine of the first 10 days had above average temperatures. Consequently, the National Park Service expects the famous Yoshino Cherry Blossoms along the Tidal Basin to reach peak bloom between March 23 and March 26. That’s appreciably earlier than the average peak bloom which doesn't occur until early April. “Peak bloom” is defined as when 70% of the blossoms emerge.

How warm or cold the winter and early spring determines when the blooms reach their peak. The earliest that peak bloom occurred was March 15, 1990. High temperatures were in the 80s on five consecutive days from March 12 – 16, 1990 that accelerated peak bloom. By comparison, the latest the cherry blossoms reached peak bloom was on April 18, 1958. That’s because February and March 1958 were both very cold and snowy in the nation’s capital. They were more than 5° colder than average with a two-month snow total of 27.8”. 

The cherry blossoms have been developing rather quickly this season since it's been exceptionally warm. Following DC's seventh warmest February, this March hasn't had any colder than average days so far. Temperatures also haven't been below freezing in the nation's capital since February 25.

Low temperatures are important with respect to the cherry blossoms since temperatures in the 20s for any length of time can damage the buds. Such was the case in March 2017 when, according to the National Park Service, “...a late frost that occurred between March 14 and March 16 caused roughly half of the blossoms to be lost.” Once they reach peak bloom, gusty winds can reduce the length of peak bloom. Given ideal conditions, peak bloom can last roughly five to seven days, giving ample opportunity for people to enjoy their splendor. 

This year’s National Cherry Blossom Festival is scheduled to begin on March 20. That coincides perfectly with the estimated peak bloom of the cherry blossoms expected shortly thereafter. My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 Weather Team expect peak bloom to occur on the earlier side of the National Park Service estimate of March 23 - March 26 estimate with several days in the 70s forecast for later this week.