What are scientists saying about the upcoming hurricane season?

 

Hurricane Melissa, October 2025 (Source: NOAA)

Although hurricane season doesn’t officially get underway until June 1, meteorologists and atmospheric scientists have already begun issuing outlooks for the upcoming season.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says ENSO-neutral conditions (the lack of El Nino or La Nina conditions) currently exist, but will give way to El Nino conditions over the summer. That means conditions for hurricane development will become less favorable in the tropical Atlantic due to an increase in wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.

Although water temperatures are warmer than average in the western Atlantic, they are a little cooler than normal in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, according to NOAA. That’s down from the record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic in 2024 that also remained above average last season. Warm, tropical ocean water of 80° or greater is typically the benchmark necessary for tropical development, or for a hurricane to maintain its intensity.

Given these conditions, the meteorologists and tropical weather experts at Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach, recently issued their April forecast for the upcoming season. They’re expecting a quieter than average 2026 season, with 13 tropical storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes.

An “average” Atlantic hurricane season features 14 tropical storms, 7 of which intensify into hurricanes with 3 major ones. That’s based on NOAA’s statistics for the 30-year period of 1991-2020. A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

More important than the overall number of named storms is where they track once they’ve developed. There have been active seasons with little or no significant impacts from tropical systems in the United States.

There have also been below average seasons when destructive and deadly storms have made landfall. Such was the case during the otherwise quiet 1992 season that saw only one major hurricane. However, Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 storm that made landfall in the United States on August 24, 1992. Andrew remains one of the costliest natural disasters on record in the United States. 

How high will April temperatures climb?

 

An April day in suburban Washington, D.C.

There is a significant upward trend in DC’s average daily temperatures in April. Average daily high/low temperatures in the nation’s capital range from 62°/43° on April 1 to 73°/53° by April 30.

Some may wonder how common April 90-degree heat is in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia). Such heat is rare in the nation’s capital outside of June, July or August.  In fact, high temperatures of 90° are the “average” high temperature in Washington, D.C. for a three-week period starting July 6. However, April has seen more periods of unusual warmth than unusual cold in recent decades. Five of DC’s 10 warmest April’s have occurred just since 2010.

April is a changeable weather month that is prone to periods of summer-like warmth as the month wears on. While not “average” on a daily basis until mid-summer, occasional 90-degree warmth can occur in April. The nation’s capital has averaged one 90-degree April day roughly every three years over the last 30 years. However, none have occurred since 2017. DC has averaged roughly the same number of April days that low temperatures were at or below freezing over the same time period.

The average first 90-degree day of the year in the nation’s capital is on or around May 18. The earliest first 90-degee day of the year in Washington, D.C. was on March 22, 1907, while the latest first 90-degree day was on July 12, 1979.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is expecting a significant warm-up in the DMV starting with highs in the 80s to around 90° for much of next week. Highs in the 90s would be record-challenging warmth for April in the nation’s capital.

The last time the nation’s capital experienced 90-degree heat during the first half of April was April 10, 2013 (91°). However, the last time Washington, D.C. experienced more than one April day in the 90s was April 6-7, 2010.

Warmest April’s in Washington, D.C. (Source: NOAA)

1. 63.8° (2017)
2. 62.4° (2019)
3. 62.1° (2023, 1981)
5. 62.0° (1994)
6. 61.7° (2025)
7. 61.6° (1985)
8. 61.2° (1960)
9. 60.9° (2010)
10. 60.6° (1941)
11. 60.5° (2024)

April Fools’ weather?

 

An April day in suburban Washington, D.C.

March 2026 finished tied for DC’s eighth warmest on record. It was also the sixth of DC’s Top 10 warmest March’s to occur in the last 15 years. Last month also finished as a drier than average March for the eighth time in the last decade.

April is a dynamic weather month in the nation’s capital that can sometimes feature chilly March-like weather. However, summer-like warmth can also occur such as today’s highs in the low to mid 80s. Average daily high/low temperatures in the nation’s capital range from 62°/43° on April 1 to 73°/53° by April 30. 

DC’s hottest April temperature of 95° occurred most recently on April 17, 2002. That’s compared to DC’s coldest April temperature of 15° on April 1, 1923. Weather records in the nation’s capital date back to 1871.  

The month of April has been warmer than average 12 times in the nation’s capital over the last two decades. April 2017 and April 2019 were DC’s warmest and second warmest on record. Sandwiched in between was April 2018 that finished as DC’s coolest since 1997. That helps illustrate how changeable DC’s spring weather can be from one year to the next.

Washington, D.C. averages 3.21” of April rainfall, according to NOAA. The nation’s capital has seen a high degree of variability in April rainfall in recent years. While April 2020 ranks among DC’s wettest, the last two April’s were both drier than average.

While showers and thunderstorms become more common as spring wears on, they can occur at any point in April. Scattered showers and storms are expected later today and tonight across the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia). However, it isn’t expected to be as large a severe weather event as on April 6, 2017, when two tornadoes touched down within DC city limits. Meanwhile, the latest in the spring that measurable snowfall has occurred in the nation’s capital was April 28, 1898 (0.5”).

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center expects this month to finish with above average temperatures and near average rainfall in the DMV. That would be similar to last April that finished as DC’s sixth warmest on record. Even average rainfall this month would be beneficial given how dry it’s been over the last year. Nine of the last 12 months have been drier than average in Washington, D.C. That’s led to moderate drought conditions for much of the DMV.