Where has the warmth gone?

 

A balmy February 2023 day at Great Falls (MD)

This February is well on its way to becoming DC’s coldest since 2015. What’s made this February feel especially cold is how warm February’s have been over the last decade, based on NOAA data. For example, five of DC’s 10 warmest February’s have occurred since 2017. Here are some stand-out stretches of February warmth in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) in recent years that are worth remembering.

2024: This month was memorable for its lack of prolonged cold. Despite being a leap year with 29 days, this February had only six colder than average days. No more than two colder than average days occurred consecutively. It was also a drier than average February with below average snowfall.

2023: The nation’s capital had an especially warm month this February with more days of high temperatures in the 60s (11), than low temperatures at or below 32° (six). A daily record high of 81° also occurred on February 23. This remains only the fourth 80-degree February temperature in the nation’s capital since official record-keeping began in the 1870s.

2018: This February had been DC’s third warmest until it was bumped to fourth place in 2023. There was a record high of 82° on February 21. This was also DC’s first 80-degree February temperature since 1948. Despite being a wetter than average month, it was simply too warm for appreciable snowfall. For a second consecutive year, February 2018 was both warmer with less snowfall than March.

2017: DC’s warmest February on record ended a stretch of four consecutive colder than average February’s. What helped make this February so warm was an equal number of days (six) of high temperatures in the 70s as low temperatures below freezing. DC’s unusual February warmth in 2017 combined with a warmer than average start to March. This helped put DC’s famous cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin on track to reach peak bloom unusually early. However, a hard shift in the weather pattern occurred that gave way to a prolonged cold stretch in mid-March. Not only did this unusual cold prevent an early peak bloom, but eight consecutive days of subfreezing temperatures caused significant damage to the blossoms (March 10 – March 17).

DC’s warmest February’s (Source: National Weather Service)

1. 47.7° (2017)
2. 46.9° (1976)
3. 46.7° (2023)
4. 45.3° (2018)
5. 45.2° (1990)
6. 44.7° (1997)
7. 44.4° (2024, 2012)
9. 43.8° (2020, 1984, 1949)

Frigid February weather

 

Cold in suburban Washington, D.C.

Although not as cold as Midwestern cities like Chicago or Minneapolis, the nation’s capital has also experienced significant February cold over the last 20 years. Given the unusual cold so far this winter, some may wonder how cold February can be. Here are some memorable stretches of February cold DC has seen.

2016: Temperatures remained below freezing on five consecutive days from February 11 – February 15. With an average high of 29.2°, the coldest day was February 14 with a high/low temperature of 26°/13°, well below the daily average of 48°/32°. Although this cold stretch occurred less than a month after the record “Blizzard of 2016,” no significant snowfall accompanied this frigid weather in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia).

2015: This February was DC’s coldest since 1979 with an average monthly temperature (combining daily high/low temperatures) nearly 10° below average. The coldest weather of the month occurred during a nine-day stretch from February 13 – February 21 when high temperatures remained below freezing on all but two days, according to the National Weather Service.

DC’s low temperature of 5° on February 20 was not only a record low for the date, but was the first February record low in the nation’s capital since 1970. DC’s average high/low temperatures over this nine-day period were 27.7°/13.0°, compared to average daily high/low temperatures for this period from 48°/31° on February 13 to 50°/33° on February 21. Parts of the DMV saw below 0° temperatures during this unusually cold month such as -4° at Dulles Airport on February 24.

2010: The six-day period of February 5 – February 10 was significant not only for being cold, but it also featured two record-setting snowfall events. “Snowmageddon” occurred on February 5-6 with 17.8” at National Airport. Another 10.8” of snow fell on February 9-10. DC’s warmest temperature during these six days was 37° on February 5, with highs remaining at or below freezing on three other days.

2007: DC’s coldest stretch of weather during the entire 2006-2007 winter season was over a six-day period in February. DC’s warmest temperature from February 4 – February 9 was 34°, according to the National Weather Service. The average high/low temperatures during this time were 29.2°/15.5° in the nation’s capital. The coldest day was February 5 with a high/low of 22°/13°.  February 2007 also saw five days with lows in the single digits at Dulles Airport.

Happy Groundhog Day

 

NOAA's February temperature outlook

January 2026 was a frigid month in the nation’s capital and finished more than 4° colder than average. Fortunately, high temperatures today are well-positioned to climb above freezing for the first time since January 23. That would bring an end to DC’s stretch of nine consecutive days at or below freezing, the longest such stretch in the nation’s capital since 1989, according to the National Weather Service.

February is the third and final month of “meteorological” winter. February is DC’s snowiest month of the year, on average, with 5.0”. Six of DC’s 10 largest snow events have occurred in February with the most recent being “Snowmageddon” in February 2010. However, February’s have not been particularly snowy for Washingtonians in recent years. For example, last February finished as DC’s first snowier than average February since 2015.

February is also the driest month of the year in Washington, D.C. with a monthly rainfall average of only 2.62”. That’s not good news for the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) which has experienced below average rainfall in eight of the last 12 months. Consequently, moderate to severe drought conditions have developed across the entire DMV.

According to National Weather Service data, DC’s average daily high/low temperatures range from 46°/30° on February 1 to 52°/34° on February 28. Eight of the last nine February’s were warmer than average in the nation’s capital. DC’s coldest February temperature occurred on February 11, 1889 (-15°). By comparison, DC’s warmest overall February temperature was 84° (February 25, 1930).

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center expects this February to feature colder than average temperatures with an equal chance for above or below normal precipitation in the nation's capital. However, even with a drier than average pattern, the right ingredients need to come together only once to produce a significant winter storm. Meanwhile, average daily temperatures and the amount of daylight both increase as the month of February wears on.