2026 Atlantic hurricane update

 

An afternoon along Dewey Beach, Delaware

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is quickly approaching in September. That's when atmospheric and environmental conditions are the most favorable for tropical storm and hurricane development. Earlier this month, NOAA updated its seasonal hurricane forecast to reflect the tropical activity over the first two months of the season.

NOAA's updated forecast calls for a seasonal total of 7-13 tropical storms, of which 2-6 could become hurricanes, with 0-2 major hurricanes. That includes the three tropical storms that have already occurred this season. An "average" hurricane season features 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The primary reason NOAA has maintained its expectation for a below average Atlantic hurricane season is an intensifying – and potentially historic – episode of El Nino.

One of the trademarks of El Nino conditions in the tropical Atlantic is an increased amount of wind shear. Wind shear refers to winds that change in both speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere. Above average wind shear means conditions are less favorable for tropical development. Tropical systems require calm winds – or the absence of wind shear - to develop. They also require warm ocean water, typically at least 80° Fahrenheit, which serves as its fuel source. Another hallmark of an El Nino event is cooler than average sea surface temperatures across the Main Development Region or “MDR” of the tropical Atlantic.

The three tropical storms that have already developed this season were relatively weak and short-lived. Only Bertha impacted the United States, having developed near the Gulf Coast last month. No hurricanes have developed anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean since last October. That makes this the first season since 2022 that no Atlantic hurricanes have developed through mid-August.

The National Hurricane Center doesn't expect any tropical storms to develop anywhere in the Atlantic over the next week. However, despite the El Nino conditions, recent seasons have shown that things in the tropical Atlantic can ramp up in a hurry. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, got markedly more active in late-August, starting with Hurricane Harvey. September 2017 saw four major Atlantic hurricanes, including two Category 5 powerhouses (Irma and Maria). 

However, the key difference between 2017 and this season is that a weak episode of La Nina developed in 2017 and that helped create more favorable conditions for an active hurricane season. That’s unlike the potentially historic El Nino this summer and fall. Still, it’s important to remember that even a below average hurricane season can produce an infamous storm such as Hurricane Alicia in 1983 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992. 

Hurricane season often intensifies in August

Hurricane Harvey, August 2017 (Source: NASA)

While the Atlantic hurricane season officially gets underway on June 1, it doesn’t typically begin to get busy until August. That’s when atmospheric and environmental conditions become much more favorable as the season’s peak approaches in September. Here are some high-impact August hurricanes that have made landfall in the United States.

Laura (2020): Laura was the first major hurricane of the record 2020 season. It made landfall as a powerful Category 4 on August 27 in Cameron, Louisiana. Its sustained winds were 150 mph at landfall. Laura’s impacts also reached areas as far inland as Arkansas and Kentucky. Laura ranks as the 17^th costliest hurricane in U.S. history with $28.1 billion in damages. It was also responsible for 47 direct deaths, according to NOAA.

Harvey (2017) – The first major hurricane of 2017, Harvey was a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph at peak intensity. Unfortunately, Harvey was a slow moving storm that left widespread damage both at the coast as well as across inland areas. It caused devastating flooding with four-foot rainfall totals in spots. Harvey remains the second costliest hurricane on record in the United States, having caused approximately $160 billion in damages. Dozens of fatalities resulted from Harvey, according to NOAA.

Hurricane Bob (1991) – Bob was a rare major hurricane to impact the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. Bob became a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph while near the North Carolina Outer Banks and caused significant coastal erosion as it headed northward. It weakened to Category 2 intensity before making landfall in Rhode Island on August 19. Bob was the only hurricane to make landfall in the United States during the 1991 season and caused $1.5 billion in damages. It remains the last hurricane to make landfall anywhere in New England.

Camille (1969) –Camille was the first major hurricane of the season.  A “major” hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a Category 3 hurricane or greater with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Camille became a Category 5 storm in the Gulf of Mexico with sustained winds of 175 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 900 mb. It made landfall in Mississippi early on August 18 and caused widespread damage. Camille remains one of only four Category 5 hurricanes on record to make landfall in the United States, along with the unnamed Florida Keys hurricane of 1935, Andrew in 1992 and Michael in 2018.

What to expect during the final month of summer

 

An August day in the nation's capital

August will get off to a typical start this weekend with highs around 90° today and scattered showers and storms tomorrow. That's especially welcome news, since August is traditionally the second hottest month of the year and the DMV (DC, Maryland Virginia) has been mired in drought conditions. 

Average daily high/low temperatures in Washington, D.C. range from 89°/72° on August 1 to 86°/69° on August 31. D.C.’s hottest August temperature was 106° on August 6, 1918. The coolest August temperature of 49° has occurred three times, most recently on August 29, 1986.

On rare occasions, August is the warmest month of the summer. There have been four such instances over the last 20 years, most recently in 2018. Triple-digit heat is also less common in August than in July. And, there’s been 100-degree heat in only two of the last 10 August’s. Since official weather records began in 1871, the nation’s capital has seen 34 August days of triple-digit heat, down from 68 in July, but ahead of June (17) and September (4).

August is one of the drier months of the year in Washington, D.C. with NOAA’s updated rainfall average of 3.25”. There have been four August’s since 2010 that were significantly drier than average (2025, 2019, 2015, 2013). Last August even set a new record for being DC’s driest August with only 0.2” of rain.

August's stretch of near to below average temperatures will continue for much of the next week, but that will largely be a function of cloud cover with scattered showers and thunderstorms. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects this month to finish with near to warmer than average temperatures combined with average rainfall in the DMV.

What is remarkable about this July’s weather?

 

A fine day in the nation's capital

July 2026 will finish as a warmer and drier than average month in the nation’s capital. This month’s weather could be summarized into two distinct halves with record-setting heat over the first half of the month. However, that was followed by stretches of mild, September-like weather. 

This month got off to an exceptionally hot start in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia). DC’s hottest July 4 on record was the signature weather event. It was the third in a stretch of three consecutive days of triple-digit heat. DC’s high of 103° on Independence Day broke the old record high of 100° that had stood since 1919. Two of these days also had low temperatures that remained in the low 80s, with a third such occurrence on July 16. That’s unusual in the nation’s capital, although it has occurred more frequently in recent decades due to the impacts of climate change and a more intense urban heat island effect.

The nation’s capital has felt more like September over the final third of July. There have been no warmer than average days since July 22. Although this month will still finish as a slightly warmer than average month, the predominantly cooler than average temperatures over the final week of July will prevent it from ranking among DC’s Top 10 warmest July’s. That’s remarkable considering how hot it was to start the month.

Despite several days of showers and storms around the DMV, July will still finish with below average rainfall (3.58” vs. 4.33”). That’s significant since 18 of the last 24 months have been drier than average in the nation’s capital. This will also be our second consecutive drier than average July – something that hasn’t happened in DC since the very hot 2011-2012 summers.

The nation’s capital hasn’t had a wetter than average month since January. The drier than average weather, combined with the warmer than average weather in June and July, has exacerbated local drought conditions. The latest Drought Monitor Index shows widespread moderate to severe drought conditions exist around the DMV.