Weather Quiz

 

The nation's capital

True or False.

It has never been 100° in Washington, D.C. during the month of May.

What makes this spring stand out?

 

Lake Needwood, Montgomery County, Maryland

DC’s cooler than average Memorial Day weekend will help this month finish roughly a full degree cooler than average. That will prevent this spring from ranking higher on the list of DC’s warmest spring’s. The three-month period of March, April and May comprises "meteorological" spring.

Largely due to the frequent clouds and rain this month, only 11 May days have been warmer than average in the nation’s capital. Nevertheless, Washingtonians experienced only the fourth May heat wave – three or more consecutive 90-degree days – of the century. Record heat was observed at all three DC-Area airports from May 18 – May 20.

April 2026 finished tied for DC’s fourth warmest on record. That was despite last month having finished with six consecutive cooler than average days. Record heat occurred on April 4 and April 15. Continuing a recent trend, six of DC's eight warmest April's have happened just since 2010. In addition, March 2026 finished as DC's eighth warmest on record and was more than five degrees warmer than average. 

Despite there being 19 days with rain this month, May will finish with below average rainfall with only 2.83” in the nation's capital. April was also a dry month with only 1.55” of rain. That's less than half of DC's April average of 3.21”. March 2026 also finished as a drier than average month for the fourth time in the last five years.

With a seasonal total of only 6.30” of rain, this spring will not only finish as DC’s driest since 2012, but also rank as the tenth driest on record in the nation’s capital. That's an impressive distinction since NOAA's weather records in the nation's capital date back to 1871.

DC's warmest spring’s (Source: NOAA)

1. 62.2° - 2012
2. 61.0° - 2025
3. 60.7° - 1977
4. 60.6° - 2024
5. 60.5° - 2010
6. 60.2° - 2026
7. 60.1° - 2019
8. 60.0° - 1991
9. 59.5° - 1945
10. 59.3° - 2015, 2004

DC’s driest spring’s (Source: NOAA)

1. 3.47” – 1986
2. 4.15” – 1915
3. 4.51” – 1969
4. 5.08” – 1926
5. 5.36” – 2006
6. 5.71” – 1925, 1879
7. 6.03” – 1911
8. 6.09” – 1885
9. 6.22” – 2012
10. 6.30” – 2026

Memorable May heat waves

 

A warm day in the nation's capital

Last week the nation’s capital had its first May heat wave in seven years. A “heat wave” is loosely defined as three or more consecutive 90-degree days. Although the nation’s capital has averaged between one and two 90-degree May days over the last 30 years according to NOAA data, late-spring heat waves are relatively rare.

2026: DC residents sweat through July-like heat from May 18 – May 20 with record heat at all three local airports. DC’s average daily high/low temperatures during this heat wave were 95.3°/70°. DC’s high of 97° on May 19 was DC’s hottest May temperature since 2011.

2019: Washingtonians experienced an unusual May heat wave from May 28 – May 30. The hottest of the three days was May 29 with high/low temperatures of 93°/74° at National Airport. No record heat occurred downtown during this stretch, but Dulles Airport had a record-tying high of 90° on May 28. DC’s average high/low temperatures for this three-day period were 91.3°/72°.

2018: This heat wave stood out not for being record-setting, but for occurring early in the month. DC’s average high/low temperatures for the heat wave from May 2 – May 4 were 90.3°/63°. May 2018 remains DC’s third warmest on record.

2013: DC’s first May heat wave in 17 years occurred from May 29 – May 31. Again, this heat wave wasn’t memorable for featuring record-setting heat, but rather for being DC’s first May heat wave of the century. DC’s average daily high/low temperatures for this modest heat wave were 90.3°/69.7°.

1996: DC’s final heat wave of last century occurred from May 19 – May 21. A record high of 96° occurred on May 20 that was ironically eclipsed last week.

It’s important to note that while the nation’s capital typically sees its first 90-degree day of the year on or around May 18, such heat is uncommon this month. Very hot May days do sometimes occur in the nation's capital without there being an official heat wave. Such was the case, for example, on May 31, 2022, when a high of 96° occurred at National Airport. DC's hottest May temperature on record was 99° on May 31, 1991. 

Below average hurricane season is likely

 

Photo Credit: NOAA

NOAA says there is a 55% chance the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be have below-normal level of activity. 

The May hurricane forecast from NOAA is for a seasonal total of 8 to 14 tropical storms (sustained winds of at least 39 mph), of which 3 to 6 intensify into hurricanes (sustained winds of at least 74 mph), with 1 to 3 of those becoming "major" hurricanes (Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph). The seasonal average is for 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. 

NOAA's forecast is similar to the Colorado State University forecast that calls for 13 tropical storms, of which 6 becomes hurricanes, with 2 major hurricanes. Both NOAA and CSU cite the same two primary conditions in their respective forecasts. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in a May 14 update that an 82% chance exists for an episode El Nino to develop by the end of July. El Nino conditions correlate to a higher amounts of wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear are winds that differ in speed or direction with altitude. Sea surface temperatures also tend to be cooler in the tropical Atlantic during an El Nino event.

Also, hurricanes typically require warm ocean water of sufficient depth to develop, commonly at least 80° Fahrenheit to a depth of 200’. Currently, sea surface temperatures are slightly warmer than average in the “MDR” or "Main Development Region" of the Atlantic Ocean. However, that’s down significantly from the record warm water temperatures that existed in this part of the Atlantic in 2024. If 2026 is a below average season, then it would be only the second below average season this decade.

Regardless of how many named storms develop, the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is less important than where they track. An otherwise quiet season could be very destructive and deadly. For example, the 1992 Atlantic season was relatively quiet with only 7 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. But that major hurricane was Andrew, which made landfall in southern Florida as a rare Category 5 storm. Andrew was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history at the time and remains one of the costliest hurricanes on record. Meanwhile, the 2010 season was an active one with 19 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, but with no significant impacts in the United States.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially gets underway on June 1. The first named storm of the season will be “Arthur.”

Weather Quiz

 

The White House, Washington, D.C.

Prior to this week’s heat wave, when was the last time the nation’s capital experienced a May heat wave?  A “heat wave” is loosely defined as three or more consecutive 90-degree days.

A. 2019

B. 2013

C. 1996

D. 1991