Weather’s impact on DC’s cherry blossoms

 

Past cherry blossoms in Bethesda, Maryland

Near record-setting warmth will occur across the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) tomorrow and Wednesday. That will help accelerate the development of DC’s world-famous Yoshino Cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin.

The National Park Service recently announced it expects them to reach peak bloom between March 29 – April 1. That would be the latest peak bloom since 2019 (April 1). However, it’s only slightly earlier than the average date of April 4. “Peak bloom” is defined as when 70% of the blossoms emerge. How warm or cold the winter and early spring are is what determines when they reach their peak. 

The earliest that peak bloom has ever occurred was on March 15, 1990. High temperatures were at record levels in the 80s on five consecutive days from March 12 – 16, 1990, which helped the blossoms reach peak bloom on March 15. A relatively early peak bloom also occurred on March 17, 2024, after a very warm winter and start to March in the nation’s capital.

By comparison, the latest the cherry blossoms reached peak bloom was on April 18, 1958. That’s because February and March 1958 were colder and much snowier than average with a two-month snow total of 27.8”. More recently, Washingtonians experienced colder and snowier than average February and March’s in both 2014 and 2015. That contributed to a relatively late peak bloom on April 10 of both years.

When the buds are developing on the cherry trees, temperatures in the 20s for any length of time can damage them. Such was the case in March 2017 when, according to the National Park Service, “...a late frost that occurred between March 14 and March 16 caused roughly half of the blossoms to be lost.” Once they reach peak bloom, gusty winds can reduce the length of peak bloom. Given ideal conditions, peak bloom can last roughly five to seven days, giving DMV residents and tourists alike ample opportunity to enjoy their splendor.

Large fluctuations in temperature are common in the nation’s capital in March. For example, temperatures have rebounded from lows near freezing this March 2 and March 3 to having temperatures in the 70s to near 80° during this week. Such warmth, especially overnight, will accelerate the development of the cherry blossoms. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects near to below average temperatures to return later this week and continue over the next 1-2 weeks across the DMV. Fortunately, that should not harm the cherry blossoms since temperatures aren’t expected to fall below freezing downtown for any length of time.

DC residents shiver through the coldest winter in decades

 

A cold winter for the DMV

The 2025-2026 meteorological winter finished as DC’s coldest in 23 years. The unofficial start to spring got underway on March 1. Meteorologists use three-month increments to measure the four seasons, so “winter” spans from December 1 – February 28. That differs from the astronomical seasons that are based on the solstices and equinoxes.

Some impressive weather benchmarks occurred this winter.  Not only was it DC’s first since 2009-2010 that all three months (December, January and February) were colder than average, but with an average temperature of 35.6°, it was DC’s coldest winter since 2002-2003 (34.0°).

The winter got off to a frigid start as December 2025 finished 4.4° colder than average. That made it DC’s coldest December since 2010. Despite 1.5” of December snowfall, the nation’s capital hasn’t had a snowier than average December since 2017.

Next, January 2026 finished 4.2° colder than average and was DC’s coldest since 2014. The final eight days of the month remained below freezing. January also finished with 7” of snow, making it DC’s third consecutive snowier than average (4.9”) January. The nation’s capital hasn’t experienced three consecutive snowier than average January’s since the 1960s.

February was 3.8° colder than average and was DC’s coldest since 2015. Seven of the first nine days of last month were at least 10° below average. Last month was DC’s tenth February in the last 11 years with below average snowfall. That’s despite February traditionally being the snowiest month of the year in the nation’s capital.

The 10.4” of snow since December 1, 2025, will ensure this winter finishes with below average snowfall (13.7”). The combination of this winter being at least four degrees colder than average (35.6° vs. 39.7°) combined with below average snowfall is DC’s first such occurrence since the 1993-1994 winter.

Looking ahead, NOAA’s spring outlook is for near average temperatures and rainfall. That would be a change from recent springs in the nation’s capital. That’s because eight of the last 10 springs have been warmer than average, while seven were also wetter than average. Any rainfall this spring would be beneficial across the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) considering the ongoing moderate drought conditions.

Meteorological spring gets underway

 

NOAA's March 2026 temperature outlook

Last month was DC’s coldest February since 2015. It also featured below average snowfall for the tenth time in the last 11 years. Meteorological spring officially gets underway today and continues through the end of May. 

Average daily high/low temperatures rise dramatically this month from 52°/35° on March 1 to 62°/43° on March 31. There has been a near 50/50 split of warmer and colder than average March’s over the last 20 years. However, the last six have each been warmer than average. DC’s warmest March temperature on record is 93° on March 23, 1907. By comparison, the coldest March temperature in the nation’s capital remains 4° on March 4, 1873.

Despite the warming March temperatures and increasing sun angle, accumulating snowfall can still occur. As recently as 2018, Washington, D.C. saw 4.1” of snow on March 21. March has been DC’s snowiest month of the year four times since 2010. March is the only month of the year DC’s snowfall average has increased in the last 10 years  (having risen from 1.3” to 2.0”), according to NOAA. 

By comparison, March has also been a drier than average month 13 times over the last two decades. DC residents average 3.5” of March rainfall (that includes the liquid equivalent of melted snowfall). Precipitation is important in March as it sets the stage for the start of the growing season.

Unseasonal warmth during January and February can sometimes be followed by unusually cold March weather. A good example of this occurred in February 2017 which finished as DC's warmest on record, but was followed by a colder than average March. That was significant because DC’s famous cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin were on track for an earlier than average peak bloom. However, March 2017 had eight consecutive days with lows that were below freezing in the middle of the month. That caused widespread damage to the buds that had developed early.

The world-famous cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin are one of DC's signature springtime attractions. NOAA’s March outlook is for warmer than average temperatures in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) with an equal chance of near average precipitation. The National Park Service will factor that into its initial forecast for peak bloom of the cherry blossoms when it is released on March 5.

DC’s remarkable February weather

 

A late-February day at Great Falls

Despite the stellar weather in the nation’s capital over the final two days of February, this month has been much colder than average. Although this month had near average rainfall, it will finish with below average snowfall for the tenth time in the last 11 years.

While DC didn’t set any temperature or precipitation records, significant February weather benchmarks occurred. For example, temperatures remained below freezing on February 1. That’s unusual since it was DC’s ninth consecutive day of subfreezing temperatures for the longest such streak since 1989, according to NOAA.

While February’s final average monthly temperature (combining daily high/low temperatures) won’t be available until next month, it will finish close to 4° below average. That would make this month DC’s coldest February since 2015. Although February is DC’s snowiest month of the year with an average of 5”, this February will finish with only 1.1”.

This month’s signature weather story across the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) has been the continuation of the frigid weather that dominated local weather headlines in December and January. Not only were the first 10 days of February colder than average, but seven of the first 10 days were at least 10° below average. By comparison, no day this month was more than five degrees warmer than average. There have also been some very windy February days. DC reported wind gusts of 58 mph and 50 mph on February 7 and February 8, according to NOAA.

The prolonged stretches of cold weather in January and February are expected to delay the peak bloom of DC’s famous cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin. The stretches of cold weather last winter (2024-2025), though less extreme than this winter, delayed peak bloom until March 28, 2025. By comparison, following the relatively mild 2023-2024 winter season, the National Park Service declared peak bloom on March 17, 2024. The average date for peak bloom (defined by 70% of the blossoms in peak bloom) isn’t until early April, but has occurred in mid-to-late March in eight of the last 10 years.

How common is late-season snow in Washington, D.C.?

 

Winter weather advisories for the DMV (Source: NWS)

While the 2025-2026 winter season has been frigid in the nation’s capital, it has also featured below average snowfall with only 8.6” since December 1. With snow forecast later today and tonight, some DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) residents may wonder how common accumulating snowfall is after Presidents Day. Though the chances of appreciable snow decrease towards the end of February, it isn’t off the table.

It would take 5.1” of new snow for the nation’s capital to reach its seasonal snowfall average of 13.6”. However, the nation’s capital hasn’t had a 5”/+ snowfall total on or after February 20 since March 16-17, 2014 (7.2”).

The nation’s capital averages 2” of March snowfall. The last time accumulating March snowfall occurred was in 2018, when DC picked up 4.1 inches on March 21. However, none of DC’s Top 10 largest snows have occurred after February 20.

NOAA data also illustrates that DC's average March snowfall increased substantially, from 1.3” to 2” over the last 30 years. Most of the accumulating snow that we see in March falls in the first half of the month. 

While the chances for accumulating snowfall decrease with every passing day after the Presidents Day holiday, the prospects for wintry weather in the DMV continue throughout March.

The chances of snow accumulating in April in the DC region are very low. The last time measurable April snowfall fell in the nation’s capital was on April 7, 2007 (0.4”). The latest in the spring the nation’s capital has seen measurable snowfall was on April 28, 1898 (0.5”). Nine of DC’s 10 snowiest April’s occurred over 100 years ago.

DC’s five largest March snowfall totals (Source: NOAA)

1. 12.0” – March 27-28, 1891
2. 11.5” – March 28-29, 1942
3. 10.7” – March 7 – 8, 1941
4. 10.0” – March 15 – 16, 1900
5. 9.8” –  March 3 – 4, 1909

DC’s five snowiest March’s (Source: NOAA)

1. 19.3” – 1914
2. 17.1” – 1960
3. 17.0” – 1891
4. 15.5” – 1900
5. 12.7" – 2014

DC’s snowiest April’s (Source: NOAA)

1. 5.5” – 1924
2. 4.0” – 1889
3. 3.5” – 1915
4. 3.0” – 1918
5. 2.0” – 1894
6. 1.8” – 1916
7. 1.5” – 1917
8. 1.4” – 1907
9. 1.0” – 1898
10. 0.6” – 1972