Weather Quiz

 

Hurricane Erin, August 2025

When was the last time a named tropical storm or hurricane developed in the Atlantic Ocean Basin (that includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) during the month of April?

A. 1997

B. 2006

C. 2017

D. 2023

What are scientists saying about the upcoming hurricane season?

 

Hurricane Melissa, October 2025 (Source: NOAA)

Although hurricane season doesn’t officially get underway until June 1, meteorologists and atmospheric scientists have already begun issuing outlooks for the upcoming season.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says ENSO-neutral conditions (the lack of El Nino or La Nina conditions) currently exist, but will give way to El Nino conditions over the summer. That means conditions for hurricane development will become less favorable in the tropical Atlantic due to an increase in wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.

Although water temperatures are warmer than average in the western Atlantic, they are a little cooler than normal in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, according to NOAA. That’s down from the record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic in 2024 that also remained above average last season. Warm, tropical ocean water of 80° or greater is typically the benchmark necessary for tropical development, or for a hurricane to maintain its intensity.

Given these conditions, the meteorologists and tropical weather experts at Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach, recently issued their April forecast for the upcoming season. They’re expecting a quieter than average 2026 season, with 13 tropical storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes.

An “average” Atlantic hurricane season features 14 tropical storms, 7 of which intensify into hurricanes with 3 major ones. That’s based on NOAA’s statistics for the 30-year period of 1991-2020. A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

More important than the overall number of named storms is where they track once they’ve developed. There have been active seasons with little or no significant impacts from tropical systems in the United States.

There have also been below average seasons when destructive and deadly storms have made landfall. Such was the case during the otherwise quiet 1992 season that saw only one major hurricane. However, Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 storm that made landfall in the United States on August 24, 1992. Andrew remains one of the costliest natural disasters on record in the United States. 

How high will April temperatures climb?

 

An April day in suburban Washington, D.C.

There is a significant upward trend in DC’s average daily temperatures in April. Average daily high/low temperatures in the nation’s capital range from 62°/43° on April 1 to 73°/53° by April 30.

Some may wonder how common April 90-degree heat is in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia). Such heat is rare in the nation’s capital outside of June, July or August.  In fact, high temperatures of 90° are the “average” high temperature in Washington, D.C. for a three-week period starting July 6. However, April has seen more periods of unusual warmth than unusual cold in recent decades. Five of DC’s 10 warmest April’s have occurred just since 2010.

April is a changeable weather month that is prone to periods of summer-like warmth as the month wears on. While not “average” on a daily basis until mid-summer, occasional 90-degree warmth can occur in April. The nation’s capital has averaged one 90-degree April day roughly every three years over the last 30 years. However, none have occurred since 2017. DC has averaged roughly the same number of April days that low temperatures were at or below freezing over the same time period.

The average first 90-degree day of the year in the nation’s capital is on or around May 18. The earliest first 90-degee day of the year in Washington, D.C. was on March 22, 1907, while the latest first 90-degree day was on July 12, 1979.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is expecting a significant warm-up in the DMV starting with highs in the 80s to around 90° for much of next week. Highs in the 90s would be record-challenging warmth for April in the nation’s capital.

The last time the nation’s capital experienced 90-degree heat during the first half of April was April 10, 2013 (91°). However, the last time Washington, D.C. experienced more than one April day in the 90s was April 6-7, 2010.

Warmest April’s in Washington, D.C. (Source: NOAA)

1. 63.8° (2017)
2. 62.4° (2019)
3. 62.1° (2023, 1981)
5. 62.0° (1994)
6. 61.7° (2025)
7. 61.6° (1985)
8. 61.2° (1960)
9. 60.9° (2010)
10. 60.6° (1941)
11. 60.5° (2024)