Beware March severe weather

 

NOAA's severe weather outlook for March 16, 2026

March typically sees an uptick in severe weather across the central and southern United States. There are specific criteria that make a thunderstorm “severe,” including the presence of any of the following: wind gusts of at least 58 mph; hail 1”/+ in diameter; or a tornado. Sometimes the strongest thunderstorms can have more than one type of severe weather. Here are some notable March severe weather outbreaks in recent years:

2025: A widespread multi-day severe weather outbreak occurred from March 14 to March 16. Severe weather was confirmed by NOAA from Texas to New York, including nearly 200 tornadoes. A total of 29 fatalities were reported with dozens more injured. This widespread and long-lasting outbreak illustrates that no part of the United States is immune to severe weather. It also underscores the importance of listening to your local meteorologists and emergency planners when dangerous weather threatens your community.

2024: A large-scale outbreak occurred on March 14 with over 400 severe weather reports from Texas to Pennsylvania. Over three dozen confirmed tornadoes touched down. The deadliest was an EF-3 in Ohio that had peak winds of 155 mph and caused three fatalities. Unusually large hail up to 4” in diameter was also reported in parts of Illinois and Oklahoma.

2023: A massive outbreak occurred on March 31 with over 700 confirmed severe weather reports, including over 160 tornadoes. The outbreak stretched from Iowa to Georgia and claimed two dozen lives with dozens more injuries. Hail over 3” in diameter fell in Illinois and multiple wind gusts over 70 mph were also reported.

2022: This outbreak spanned three days and covered a large swath of the United States with severe weather reports from Nebraska to Florida to Pennsylvania. The DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) was impacted on March 31 with a slew of severe weather reports. The National Weather Service confirmed an EF-0 tornado caused minor damage in Tysons Corner, Virginia. Meanwhile, another EF-0 tornado was confirmed in Centreville, Virginia. Both tornadoes had winds of less than 85 mph and were on the ground for less than a minute. Fortunately, no injuries were reported.

2020: An outbreak occurred on March 1 from Missouri to Tennessee. Large hail was reported with sightings of 2” to 3” in diameter. A series of tornadoes occurred late in the evening and continued into the early morning hours of March 2, primarily in Tennessee. A total of 20 tornadoes caused 29 fatalities, according to NOAA. The strongest tornado was an EF-4 in Putnam County, Tennessee, with winds between 166 mph and 200 mph.

While smartphone technology has greatly improved the ability to relay the latest critical weather news to the public, it isn’t 100% effective. That’s why getting a NOAA weather radio or adding the NOAA weather alerts app to your mobile devices is also a good idea.

Weather Quiz

 

A late-March day in suburban Washington, D.C.

True or False.

The combined total of five 80-degree March days in March 2025 and so far in March 2026 has given the nation’s capital more 80-degree warmth than any consecutive March period in the last 30 years.

DC’s dynamic March weather

 

March 2020 in Bethesda, Maryland

March is arguably the most changeable weather month of the year in the nation’s capital. Average daily high/low temperatures range from 52°/35° on March 1 to 62°/43° by the end of the month. That’s the largest monthly temperature spread of the year.

No month in the nation’s capital has a larger difference between the monthly record high (93° on March 23, 1907) and the low (4° on March 4, 1873) than March. The nation’s capital experienced a March 10 record high temperature of 84° yesterday for DC’s warmest temperature since last October. Today’s record high of 86° was DC’s warmest temperature during the first half of March in nearly 36 years since March 12, 1990 (89°).

Large swings in temperature and precipitation-type are common in March as these examples illustrate:

2018: DC’s largest snowfall of the 2017-2018 winter season occurred unusually late when 4.1” fell on March 21. More snow fell on that one day than accumulated during that entire winter. The nation’s capital averages only 2” of March snowfall.

2014: Following a high of 70° on March 15, a major change quickly occurred in the nation’s capital. A low of 31° on March 16 shortly before midnight brought accumulating snowfall that evening. Before the snow ended on March 17, Washingtonians had a two-day total of 7.2”, giving DC residents their snowiest St. Patrick’s Day. It also became DC’s tenth largest March snowfall on record. St. Patrick’s Day 2014 was not only a snowy occasion in the nation’s capital, but a frigid one with a high temperature of only 32°.

2012: This was DC’s warmest March on record. Low temperatures were at or below freezing on only two days in March 2012, compared to four days high temperatures in the 80s. That’s a significant total since Washington, D.C. has averaged only one March day in the 80s every other year over the last three decades, according to NOAA.

1990: One of the more extreme examples of how quickly and dramatically March weather can change in the nation’s capital happened in 1990. An unusually cold day occurred on March 7 with a high/low of only 41°/22° at National Airport. Merely five days later, however, there was a record high of 89° on March 12. That was the first of five consecutive days with highs in the 80s, which led to the earliest peak bloom of the cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin on March 15, according to the National Park Service. Following DC’s high temperature of 81° on March 16, the weather pendulum swung back to winter four days later when 0.4” of snow fell.

Weather’s impact on DC’s cherry blossoms

 

Past cherry blossoms in Bethesda, Maryland

Near record-setting warmth will occur across the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) tomorrow and Wednesday. That will help accelerate the development of DC’s world-famous Yoshino Cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin.

The National Park Service recently announced it expects them to reach peak bloom between March 29 – April 1. That would be the latest peak bloom since 2019 (April 1). However, it’s only slightly earlier than the average date of April 4. “Peak bloom” is defined as when 70% of the blossoms emerge. How warm or cold the winter and early spring are is what determines when they reach their peak. 

The earliest that peak bloom has ever occurred was on March 15, 1990. High temperatures were at record levels in the 80s on five consecutive days from March 12 – 16, 1990, which helped the blossoms reach peak bloom on March 15. A relatively early peak bloom also occurred on March 17, 2024, after a very warm winter and start to March in the nation’s capital.

By comparison, the latest the cherry blossoms reached peak bloom was on April 18, 1958. That’s because February and March 1958 were colder and much snowier than average with a two-month snow total of 27.8”. More recently, Washingtonians experienced colder and snowier than average February and March’s in both 2014 and 2015. That contributed to a relatively late peak bloom on April 10 of both years.

When the buds are developing on the cherry trees, temperatures in the 20s for any length of time can damage them. Such was the case in March 2017 when, according to the National Park Service, “...a late frost that occurred between March 14 and March 16 caused roughly half of the blossoms to be lost.” Once they reach peak bloom, gusty winds can reduce the length of peak bloom. Given ideal conditions, peak bloom can last roughly five to seven days, giving DMV residents and tourists alike ample opportunity to enjoy their splendor.

Large fluctuations in temperature are common in the nation’s capital in March. For example, temperatures have rebounded from lows near freezing this March 2 and March 3 to having temperatures in the 70s to near 80° during this week. Such warmth, especially overnight, will accelerate the development of the cherry blossoms. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects near to below average temperatures to return later this week and continue over the next 1-2 weeks across the DMV. Fortunately, that should not harm the cherry blossoms since temperatures aren’t expected to fall below freezing downtown for any length of time.