How common are November snowstorms?

 

November 2018 snowfall, Poolesville, MD (Photo Credit: Ashley Adams)

Longtime Washingtonians may recall that today is the 39^th anniversary of DC’s largest November snowfall on record. On November 11, 1987, a record 11.5” of snow fell at National Airport. Meanwhile, Dulles and BWI Airports both set daily snowfall records with lesser amounts (5.3” and 6.0” respectively).

In the nearly four decades since the record-setting Veterans Day snowstorm, November snowfall has proven elusive in the nation’s capital. In fact, only four November’s have seen measurable snowfall since then. DC residents have experienced November snowfall only once this century and that was in 2018.

Early season snowfall doesn’t guarantee a snowier than average winter. For example, although four of the five winters DC had accumulating November snowfall since 1987-1988 finished with above average snowfall, the 1996-1997 winter didn’t. Of DC’s annual snowfall average of 13.7”, only 0.1” comes in November and 1.7” in December. DC’s snowiest months are January (4.9”) and February (5.0”).

NOAA expects the strong episode of El Nino that’s developed to continue throughout the winter. Although El Nino winters often feature warmer and wetter than average conditions in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia), some of DC’s largest winter storms have also occurred during El Nino winters. For example, during the last very strong episode of El Nino in the 2015-2016 winter, Washingtonians experienced the fourth largest winter storm on record with 17.8” in January 2016.

This November has gotten off to a warm start as each of the first 11 days were warmer than average. Although colder than average temperatures will dominate local weather headlines this weekend, no winter weather is likely in the nation’s capital until after Thanksgiving.

Destructive November hurricanes

 

Hurricane Iota, November 2020 (Source: NOAA)

November is the sixth and final month of the hurricane season. It’s typically very quiet as conditions have largely become unfavorable for tropical development after the September peak of the season. That’s not to say the occasionally intense and high impact November hurricane doesn’t come along. Some have even made landfall in the United States.

Nicole (2022): While Nicole wasn’t a major hurricane, it gets a mention because of its destructive impact in the United States. It was only the third November hurricane to ever make landfall in Florida. Nicole came ashore near Vero Beach on November 10 as a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 75 mph. It did approximately $1 billion in damages and caused five fatalities in Florida, according to NOAA.

Iota (2020): At peak strength in the Caribbean Sea on November 16, Iota nearly reached Category 5 intensity with sustained winds of 155 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 917 millibars (mb). By comparison, standard sea level air pressure is approximately 1013 mb. Iota caused widespread damage in Central America. It was the seventh and final major hurricane (Category 3/+) of the active 2020 season.

Otto (2016): Otto attained hurricane status in the Caribbean Sea on November 23 and intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph. Otto made landfall in Nicaragua on November 24 at peak intensity. The National Hurricane Center tracked Otto as it crossed Central America into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Otto was the first tropical system since 1996 to cross Central America and emerge in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Lenny (1999):  On November 17, Lenny made landfall on the island of St. Croix with sustained winds of 155 mph. Lenny’s minimum central air pressure was 933 mb. Hurricanes normally track from east to west in the Northern Hemisphere. However, being a late-season storm, Hurricane Lenny tracked west to east across the Caribbean Sea. Lenny was the first major November hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean Basin in 14 years.

Kate (1985): Kate reached peak intensity as a Category 3 hurricane on November 20 with sustained winds of 120 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 953 mb. Kate weakened slightly to a Category 2 storm before its landfall on the Florida Peninsula on November 21. It was the fourth hurricane to impact the U.S. Gulf Coast during the 1985 season. Kate was also the latest landfalling hurricane on record in the contiguous United States. A total of $300 million in damages were reported in the United States (unadjusted for inflation) along with five fatalities, according to NOAA.

Dry in the nation’s capital

 

A November day in Potomac, Maryland

Although scattered showers are in the forecast today and tomorrow for the nation’s capital, they will follow a multi-week stretch of dry weather. Before today, no measurable rainfall had occurred in Washington, D.C. for 18 consecutive days. That was the second longest dry stretch of the year in the nation’s capital.

This nearly three-week stretch of dry weather has led to the return of “abnormally dry” conditions across much of the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia). That refers to drier than average conditions that haven’t yet reached drought-level conditions.

Being as dry as it’s been recently is unfortunate since widespread drought conditions that were in place over the spring and summer had only recently been alleviated by a wetter than average August and September. Any rainfall today or tomorrow would certainly be beneficial as November is typically one of the drier months of the year.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects near average rainfall for the DMV this month. That isn’t a good recipe for making up DC’s roughly eight-inch rainfall deficit since January 1. In fact, eight of the last 10 November’s have been drier than average in the nation’s capital. Average November rainfall here is only 2.91”, according to NOAA.

This year is well-positioned to become DC’s fourth consecutive drier than average year (41.82”). That would be the longest such streak in the nation’s capital since five consecutive drier than average years occurred from 1984 – 1988.

DC’s longest stretch w/o measurable rainfall (DCA)

38 days: October 3 – November 9, 2024

37 days: September 15 – October 18, 2007

33 days: August 7 – September 8, 1995