What does El Nino mean for the hurricane season?

 

Ocean City, Maryland (Photo Credit: Ashley Adams)

Not only have El Nino conditions developed, but NOAA expects them to continue into next year.  That could have significant impacts on the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said yesterday that: “El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.” This El Nino could become one of the stronger El Nino’s of recent memory.

El Nino conditions are characterized by warmer than average ocean water in the tropical east Pacific, off the west coast of Mexico. This has global impacts on the weather because El Nino also contributes to below average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic combined with elevated levels of wind shear. Both conditions tend to preclude tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean.

Consequently, the team of scientists at Colorado State University updated its forecast this week for the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. They’re forecasting a seasonal total of nine tropical storms, of which four become hurricanes with one major hurricane. That’s down from what they were expecting in April (13, 6 and 1).

NOAA issued its seasonal forecast last month that called for 8 – 14 tropical storms, of which 3 – 6 become hurricanes with 1 – 3 major hurricanes. NOAA will update its forecast early next month. A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The three strongest episodes of El Nino over the last 50 years were in 2015-2016, 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. All three saw a commensurate reduction of activity in the tropical Atlantic. It’s important to remember that many factors go into how busy a hurricane season may or may not be. Quiet seasons can still produce damaging and/or deadly storms. For example, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Hurricane Alicia in 1983 were the only major Atlantic hurricanes those years and both were exceptionally dangerous. There have also been very active seasons when the United States didn’t see any significant impacts such as in 2010.

The only named storm so far this season was a weak and short-lived tropical storm. “Arthur” developed near the Texas coast last month. The next named storm this season will be “Bertha.” 

DC’s historic July 4 heat wave

 

Torrid early July weather in the DMV

This month’s weather has gotten off to an historic start in the nation’s capital. For only the eighth time on record, Washingtonians experienced three consecutive days of triple-digit heat. Multiple record highs were set, including the hottest July 4.

Two of the three record highs that were broken had been over 100 years old. That helps underscore how unusual the heat wave was in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia). Unfortunately, it coincided with the July 4 holiday when so many folks had outdoor plans. However, that served as an important reminder to remember hot weather safety tips (limit your time outdoors, drink plenty of water, use suntan lotion, etc.). 

The 2026 summer has gotten off to an exceptionally hot start in the nation’s capital. If no more triple-digit heat were to occur this summer, Washington, D.C. would finish with four days of it (including the June 12 record high of 100°). That would allow 2026 to tie for DC’s sixth highest annual total on record. That’s remarkable since official NOAA weather records in the nation’s capital date back to the 1870s.

This was also the fourth stretch of three or more consecutive days of triple-digit heat in the nation’s capital just since 2010. What makes these four stretches stand out even more than the four that occurred last century [1993, 1988, and 1930 (2)] is the more pronounced urban heat island effect that’s developed in Washington, D.C.

The urban heat island effect has helped overnight low temperatures remain warmer than they used to when urbanization, vehicular traffic, and greenhouse gas emissions were lower than present levels. For example, the average daily high/low temperatures in the nation’s capital during the four stretches of triple-digit heat of three or more days in the 1900s were 101.1°/76.5° while the four this century were 101.6°/79.5°. The average daily overnight low temperature during this century’s streaks were 3° warmer than the equivalent periods last century.

Intense heat waves have also occurred more frequently in the nation’s capital this century with four stretches of at least three consecutive days of triple-digit heat in the last 14 years vs. four between 1930-1993.

July 1 record high / record high-low (Source: NOAA)

IAD: 97° (old record: 96° - 2012) / 73° (old record: 72° - 2017, 2014)

July 2 record highs / record high-lows

DCA: 102° (old record: 101° - 1898) / 80° (old record: 79° - 2012, 1872)
IAD: 98° (old record: 98° - 1966) / 75° (old record: 75° - 2022)

July 3 record highs / record high-lows

DCA: 102° (old record: 101° - 1966, 1873, 1872) / 84° (old record: 80° - 2018)
IAD (record high-low): 78° (old record: 73° - 2018, 2006)

July 4 record highs

DCA: 103° (old record: 100° - 1919)
IAD: 99° (old record: 97° - 2002, 1999)
BWI: 102° (old record: 2002, 1966, 1898)

Years with most days of 100-degree heat in Washington, D.C. (Source: NOAA)

11 – 1930
8 – 2012
7 – 1988
6 – 2024, 1980
5 – 2011, 1997
4 – 2026, 2016, 2010, 1993, 1954, 1871

Weather Quiz

 

View of Georgetown from Roosevelt Island

True or False. 

Seven of the 10 warmest July’s in the nation’s capital have occurred since 2010.