Too early to think about hurricane season?

 

Dewey Beach, Delaware (August 2025)

Although the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t officially get underway until June 1, a new NOAA report has a big clue as to what kind of season it could be. ENSO-neutral conditions (the lack of El Nino or La Nina) are expected to develop with a 55% chance they’ll continue through July. However, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says a 62% chance exists that El Nino conditions will develop before the end of August and continue for the rest of the year.

El Nino, especially a strong episode of El Nino, is known for creating unfavorable conditions for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. That’s because it’s characterized by below average sea surface temperatures and an increased amount of wind shear (i.e., winds that differ in direction with altitude). The tropical Atlantic saw below average activity during El Nino events (in 2015, 1997 and 1992). On the other hand, the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons often occur during episodes of La Nina. Even ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Nino or La Nina) tend to feature more favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic then El Nino conditions.

While the presence of La Nina or El Nino are major drivers of tropical activity, there are other factors to consider as well. The presence of atmospheric dust that sometimes travels west from central Africa into the tropical Atlantic can impact tropical storm formation. The presence of above or below average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean Basin is also important to consider. The Atlantic Ocean Basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Much of the tropical Atlantic, has had unusually warm sea surface temperatures in recent years. That’s lingered into early 2026, NOAA reports.

Having warmer than average sea surface temperatures combined with an above average amount of wind shear in the tropical Atlantic – associated with the anticipated El Nino – is exactly what makes the 2026 hurricane season forecast difficult. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 tropical storms, of which 7 become hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes. A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

However, the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is less important than how strong they become and/or where they track. For example, this summer will be 34 years since Hurricane Andrew, which remains one of the strongest and costliest hurricanes ever to make landfall in the United States. Ironically, it was the only major hurricane in what was an otherwise quieter than average 1992 Atlantic hurricane season. 

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season also had a below average number of tropical storms (13), but included four major hurricanes. Three of the four major Atlantic hurricanes last season reached Category 5 intensity and that was the second highest total on record. So, a hurricane season can be busy with a higher than average number of named storms or a lower total of named storms, but with a higher number of intense storms. Distinguished scientists at NOAA and Colorado State University will issue their forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season later this spring.

DC’s unusually warm March weather

 

More like spring (March 2020)

The nation’s capital has experienced seven of its 15 warmest March’s since 2010. March is a transitional weather month with the greatest extremes between monthly record high and record low temperatures.

March’s highly changeable weather has been on full display across the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) over the last week. Not only did the nation’s capital set record highs on March 10 (84°) and March 11 (86°), but those were DC’s warmest temperatures during the first half of March since 1990. Severe weather also occurred in the DMV twice over the last week as this month’s battle between winter and spring continues.

The nation’s capital averages one 80-degree March day in two out of every three years, according to NOAA. However, between DC’s three 80-degree days last March and the two so far this March, Washingtonians have already had more 80-degree March warmth than in any back-to-back March period since 1993. That combination, combined with four of DC’s 15 warmest March’s over just the last decade illustrates a recent pattern for warmer March’s.

While some of that warming can be attributed to the urban heat island effect and increased automobile traffic, a warming climate is also a factor. NOAA uses a 30-year dataset when measuring average temperatures and precipitation for the United States that’s updated every decade. NOAA updated its averages five years ago to reflect the 30-year period of 1991-2020, replacing the previous 1981-2010 period. Since the 2010s were a much warmer decade than the 1980s, DC’s average temperatures for the entire year increased, not just in March.

The recent warm weather doesn’t mean Washingtonians won’t see colder or snowier than average March weather going forward. For example, March was DC’s snowiest month of the year five times between 2009-2018. That helps underscore how March weather can fluctuate significantly from one year to the next.

DC’s warmest March’s (Source: NOAA)

1. 56.8° (2012)
2. 56.2° (1945)
3. 55.5° (1921)
4. 54.3° (2025)
5. 53.5° (2016)
6. 53.2° (2020)
7. 53.0° (1946)
8. 52.7° (1977)
9. 51.9° (2024)
10. 51.7° (2000)
11. 51.5° (1979)
12. 51.3° (1976)
13. 51.2° (2021, 2010, 1910)
 
47.6° - Average

Beware March severe weather

 

NOAA's severe weather outlook for March 16, 2026

March typically sees an uptick in severe weather across the central and southern United States. There are specific criteria that make a thunderstorm “severe,” including the presence of any of the following: wind gusts of at least 58 mph; hail 1”/+ in diameter; or a tornado. Sometimes the strongest thunderstorms can have more than one type of severe weather. Here are some notable March severe weather outbreaks in recent years:

2025: A widespread multi-day severe weather outbreak occurred from March 14 to March 16. Severe weather was confirmed by NOAA from Texas to New York, including nearly 200 tornadoes. A total of 29 fatalities were reported with dozens more injured. This widespread and long-lasting outbreak illustrates that no part of the United States is immune to severe weather. It also underscores the importance of listening to your local meteorologists and emergency planners when dangerous weather threatens your community.

2024: A large-scale outbreak occurred on March 14 with over 400 severe weather reports from Texas to Pennsylvania. Over three dozen confirmed tornadoes touched down. The deadliest was an EF-3 in Ohio that had peak winds of 155 mph and caused three fatalities. Unusually large hail up to 4” in diameter was also reported in parts of Illinois and Oklahoma.

2023: A massive outbreak occurred on March 31 with over 700 confirmed severe weather reports, including over 160 tornadoes. The outbreak stretched from Iowa to Georgia and claimed two dozen lives with dozens more injuries. Hail over 3” in diameter fell in Illinois and multiple wind gusts over 70 mph were also reported.

2022: This outbreak spanned three days and covered a large swath of the United States with severe weather reports from Nebraska to Florida to Pennsylvania. The DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) was impacted on March 31 with a slew of severe weather reports. The National Weather Service confirmed an EF-0 tornado caused minor damage in Tysons Corner, Virginia. Meanwhile, another EF-0 tornado was confirmed in Centreville, Virginia. Both tornadoes had winds of less than 85 mph and were on the ground for less than a minute. Fortunately, no injuries were reported.

2020: An outbreak occurred on March 1 from Missouri to Tennessee. Large hail was reported with sightings of 2” to 3” in diameter. A series of tornadoes occurred late in the evening and continued into the early morning hours of March 2, primarily in Tennessee. A total of 20 tornadoes caused 29 fatalities, according to NOAA. The strongest tornado was an EF-4 in Putnam County, Tennessee, with winds between 166 mph and 200 mph.

While smartphone technology has greatly improved the ability to relay the latest critical weather news to the public, it isn’t 100% effective. That’s why getting a NOAA weather radio or adding the NOAA weather alerts app to your mobile devices is also a good idea.