A closer look at the Atlantic’s quietest hurricane seasons

 

Hurricane Chris, August 1994 (Source: NOAA)

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has already set a new record for latest in the season without a hurricane. The old record for delayed first hurricane was September 11. A little more than two months are left before the season ends on November 30.

Since September is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, tropical activity declines in October and November as conditions become less favorable for development. That said, this season could become the first in more than a hundred years without a single Atlantic hurricane. It’s estimated that no hurricanes developed during the 1907 and 1914 Atlantic hurricane seasons. However, those seasons occurred long before the satellite era began in the 1960s, so it’s possible a hurricane developed over the open ocean away from land or a nearby ship to detect it. 

What makes this season so potentially historic is that every hurricane season since the 1960s has featured at least one Atlantic hurricane. It remains possible that a hurricane will develop somewhere in the Atlantic before the end of the season. However, with only six short-lived tropical storms so far this season, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is well-positioned to finish as one of the quietest on record. Here are some of the other very quiet seasons since the 1980s.

1994: A total of only seven tropical storms developed this season with three that became hurricanes, but no major ones. What also stands out about this season is that two of the three hurricanes developed in November. The final month of the season, November is normally very quiet in the tropics.

1987: Another calm season with seven tropical storms, of which three became hurricanes. None made landfall in the United States. The strongest storm of the season was Category 3 Hurricane Emily.

1983: Similar to 2026, this season occurred during another very strong episode of El Nino and saw only four tropical storms with three hurricanes and one major hurricane. The major hurricane was “Alicia.” A Category 3 storm, Alicia developed off the Texas Gulf Coast where it made landfall. A “major” hurricane is defined as a Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph around the storm’s center.

1982: Only six tropical storms developed during this season as well. Two intensified into hurricanes for lowest seasonal total of Atlantic hurricanes in the satellite era. The strongest storm was Hurricane Debby that reached Category 4 intensity over the north Atlantic Ocean.

Weather Quiz

 

Hurricane Maria, September 2017 (Source: NOAA)

The rarest of storms, Category 5 hurricanes occur only infrequently. What year holds the record for most Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes?

A.  1961

B.  2005

C.  2017 

D.  2024

DC’s hard pivot towards autumn

 

A late summer day in Potomac, Maryland

The first three weeks of September have featured plenty of summer-like weather in the nation’s capital. However, it’s not uncommon for the second half of September to pivot to cooler, more fall-like temperatures. Such will be the case this week with the arrival of rainy and cooler than average weather.

These rainy and cool than average conditions will largely be the function of a nearby front and an anticipated area of low pressure that will develop along it near the Mid-Atlantic coast. That will help produce waves of rain and cooler than average conditions for the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia). That’s good news as the nation’s capital still has a year-to-date rainfall deficit of more than 6.5”.

As cool as the final week of September will be, the first 20 days of September only saw two cooler than average days. In fact, September began with four consecutive days of 90-degree heat in Washington, D.C. for the first time since 2015. Although no record high temperatures were set, three record high-low temperatures were tied earlier this month. That means three days remained unusually warm overnight. 

As of September 20, this month has been 3.7° warmer than average. If the final week of September were to feature similar weather conditions, then this month could have ranked among DC’s Top 10 warmest. However, with this week’s temperatures remaining appreciably below average and feeling more like mid to late October, September 2026 will finish with much closer to average temperatures.

This week’s rainfall will be beneficial as the DMV has battled drought conditions for much of the year. If this month finishes as a wetter than average month, it would become DC’s first wetter than average September since 2021. September is actually DC’s fourth rainiest month of the year with a monthly average of 3.93”, according to NOAA. That also takes into account beneficial rainfall from the remnants of tropical systems.