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| As we get deeper into autumn, people start to wonder about winter |
As
I wrote about recently, the current El Nino event that’s developed in the
Pacific Ocean has become the strongest since the late 1990s. That could be a
good thing for the drought-stricken western United States, especially
California in particular typically sees above average rainfall during an El
Nino winter. An El Nino event is characterized
by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean that leads to global weather repercussions.
Washingtonians may wonder what influence, if any, El Nino may have on the upcoming winter season. NOAA recently issued its seasonal outlook that’s taken El Nino into account. It’s calling for a slightly above average potential for a warmer and wetter than average winter in the Mid-Atlantic Region. That’s not unusual for this part of the country during a strong episode of El Nino. During the significant 1997-1998 El Nino, the Nation’s Capital had its least snowy winter on record.
Washingtonians may wonder what influence, if any, El Nino may have on the upcoming winter season. NOAA recently issued its seasonal outlook that’s taken El Nino into account. It’s calling for a slightly above average potential for a warmer and wetter than average winter in the Mid-Atlantic Region. That’s not unusual for this part of the country during a strong episode of El Nino. During the significant 1997-1998 El Nino, the Nation’s Capital had its least snowy winter on record.
Prior to the 1997-1998
El Nino, the previous strongest El Nino event on record came during the
1982-1983 winter season. The Mid-Atlantic Region saw one of its largest
snowstorms that winter, since the ideal combination of cold air and favorable
storm track came together. Longtime Washingtonians will remember that totals
ranging from 16.6” downtown on February 10-11, 1983, to 22.8” at both Dulles
Airport and in Baltimore.
The Mid-Atlantic Region has
had two of its snowiest winters during what NOAA describes as “moderate” El
Nino events: during the 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 winter seasons. In fact, the
2009-2010 winter season was the snowiest on record when 56.1” of snow fell in
Washington, D.C. (compared to a seasonal snowfall average of 15.4”). That helps
illustrate that whether or not there’s an El Nino event, it only takes one
significant winter storm to make the entire winter season snowier-than-average
for the Mid-Atlantic Region. However,
specific winter storms are generally not predictable more than a week in
advance.
