Trading a Hurricane for a Nor'Easter?

Hurricane Joaquin poised to remain offshore (Source: NOAA)

Although Hurricane Joaquin has been the major weather story this week, it is poised to track far enough east that no direct impact will be felt across the East Coast.  That said, widespread coastal erosion is expected to continue through the weekend.  According to the National Hurricane Center, Joaquin is the most intense hurricane to form anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean since Hurricane Igor in 2010 and has had a significant impact on the Bahamas. Joaquin is also the strongest hurricane to effect the Bahamas since Frances in 2004.

Ironically, the early season Nor’Easter that’s been buffeting millions of people up and down the East Coast with heavy rain and gusty winds has siphoned off some of the moisture from the hurricane.  While some of Joaquin’s outer rain bands have impacted our coastline, the Nor’Easter has helped protect the United States from a landfall by Joaquin.  Nevertheless, flooding has occurred over a huge area as far south as Georgia and north to New England.  

As gloomy as the weather has been the last few days, conditions could have been much worse had Joaquin made landfall in the United States.  For example, Hurricane Isabel brought heavy rains, significant coastal flooding and caused 1.4 million power outages across the DC Metro Region in 2003.  Many people are also still recovering from Sandy nearly three years ago, so Joaquin remaining offshore is an especially good thing.

More rain has occurred in the Mid-Atlantic Region this week than in the previous two months combined.  From August 1 through September 28, only a scant 1.66” of rain fell in the Nation’s Capital, while 3.56” has occurred since Tuesday.  Just yesterday, the National Weather Service confirmed a weak EF-0 tornado touched down on Tuesday, September 29 in Laurel causing minor damage.  In addition to the heavy rain that’s occurred this week, temperatures have been much cooler than average.  Thursday’s high temperature in Washington, D.C. was 63 degrees, while yesterday and today have both had high temperatures of only 58 degrees compared to an average high of 73 degrees.

The dramatic change in the weather pattern this week from being warm and dry in August and much of September to being so cool and wet is not unprecedented.  October is a transitional month for much of the United States, as the throes of autumn envelop much of the country with cooler temperatures and occasional coastal storms.  In fact, this Nor’Easter could have brought the Mid-Atlantic significant snowfall had it developed in the winter.