Where will Hurricane Joaquin track next? (Source: NOAA) |
The last four months has
featured highly variable weather in the Nation’s Capital. May and June were among
the warmest on record, while June was also the second wettest in Washington,
D.C. That rainy trend continued through the first half of July, but since then
there has been significantly below average rainfall. From August 1 through September 28, there was
a rainfall deficit of more than four inches in the Nation’s Capital.
This week, the pendulum
has swung the other way to a very rainy weather pattern for much of the eastern
United States. Widespread rainfall totals of more than an inch across the
Mid-Atlantic Region occurred September 29.
That kept September 2015 from being among the driest on record, but
September finished with an average temperature (combing daily highs and lows)
of 74.9 degrees that made it the 7th warmest on record in
Washington, D.C.
Longtime Washingtonians
will remember how quickly the weather pattern can change from being very dry to
wetter-than-average. September 2005 was
the driest on record in the Nation’s Capital with only 0.11” of rain (compared
to an average of 3.72”). It was followed
by the wettest October on record with a monthly total of 9.41”.
According to the
National Weather Service, the average high temperature on October 1 in
Washington, D.C. is 74 degrees, but that falls to 64 degrees by Halloween.
October averages 3.4” of rain in the Nation’s Capital and has seen a trace of
snow as recently as October 29, 2011! Although
uncommon, 90 degree heat has occurred in early October as recently as in 2013, when
it was 91 degrees at National Airport on October 6th.
October can also see
prolific rainfall and flooding from the remnants of a tropical system. The
remnants of Hurricane Opal brought the Mid-Atlantic Region appreciable rainfall
and some weak tornadoes in early October 1995.
The rainy weather pattern we’re currently in will continue into the
weekend. The track of Hurricane Joaquin
looms large over the forecast for the DC Metro Region and much of the eastern
United States.
Joaquin is currently a
Category 4 hurricane near the Bahamas and could impact the eastern United
States over the weekend and early next week.
The prospect of a tropical storm or hurricane in this part of the
country will remind longtime Washingtonians of past storms like Floyd in 1999,
Isabel in 2003 and Irene in 2011.
However, there is still a great detail of uncertainty in the track,
timing and intensity of the storm. My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather
team will keep you posted.
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