Hurricanes During 2015 - 2016

Hurricane Joaquin near the Bahamas, October 2015  (Source: NASA)

In typical El Nino fashion, the 2015 hurricane season was quieter than average in the Atlantic Ocean.  At the same time, the eastern and central Pacific Ocean saw above average tropical activity.  The Eastern Pacific hurricane season ended in mid-November, and had a 2015 total of 18 named tropical storms, 13 hurricanes and 9 major hurricanes.  The National Hurricane Center said the central Pacific Ocean saw its busiest season on record with 14 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

Scientists at both Colorado State University and National Hurricane Center predicted this in light of the increasing strength of El Nino during the summer and fall months.  Although the Atlantic Ocean had its strongest hurricane since 2010, Joaquin was one of only 11 tropical storms that developed this year – including 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.  That’s below the 30 year average (1981 – 2010) of 12, 6 and 3.  

However, it’s significantly lower than the 17 year average of 16 tropical storms, more than 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes that occurred during the active period in the Atlantic Ocean from 1995 - 2012.  2015 was the third consecutive season with near or below average tropical activity.  For the three year period of 2013 through 2015, only 12 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic – the lowest such total since 11 developed from 1992 through 1994. 

Another way scientists measure energy in tropical storms and hurricanes is “Accumulated Cyclone Energy” or “ACE,” which is a measure of a storms potential for destruction from wind and storm surge.  For the month of September 2015 – which is typically the busiest month of the hurricane season – the ACE value was 11.  During the last three Septembers, the combined ACE value was only 44 for the Atlantic Ocean Basin – the lowest such three year value in roughly 100 years.  No major hurricane has made landfall in the United States since 2005.  Florida hasn’t felt the impact of any hurricane since 2005 either – the longest such streak on record.  

Will the 2016 hurricane season also see above average activity in the eastern Pacific?  Will less tropical activity continue in the Atlantic Ocean?  That’s largely dependent on the status of El Nino next spring and summer.  If El Nino diminishes in the spring, then that would correlate to a higher potential for an above average season in the Atlantic Ocean.