Tropics in October

Nicole's Projected Track (Source: NHC)

October often features significant tropical storms and hurricanes despite averaging fewer storms than in September.  For example, although it formed late last month, Hurricane Matthew caused much of its damage this month from the Caribbean to the southeast coast of the United States.  It will be several weeks before the final casualty and damage assessment work is completed.  Another storm, Nicole, is expected to pass near the island of Bermuda as a minimal hurricane on Thursday. 

According to National Hurricane Center records, the last hurricane to make landfall in Bermuda was Gonzalo in October 2014 with sustained winds of 110 mph.  Landfall occurs when the center of a storm comes ashore.  That’s an important distinction because a number of systems often give Bermuda a glancing blow without making landfall, such as when Hurricane Joaquin impacted Bermuda on its way out to sea. 

October 2013 also saw a fair amount of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean with three tropical storms.  That was a year after the second costliest natural disaster in U.S. history occurred.  Hurricane Sandy developed in late October 2012 and at peak intensity was a major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph.  Although not as powerful as Matthew, Gonzalo or Joaquin were, Sandy caused almost unprecedented damage.  Some may recall that the National Hurricane Center determined Sandy was no longer a hurricane and classified it as a “post-tropical cyclone” shortly before Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on October 29.  Sandy, nevertheless, produced hurricane force winds with significant wind damage and flooding rainfall well inland.

Another powerful hurricane that occurred in October was Hurricane Wilma, which became the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record on October 19, 2005 with sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 882 millibars.  Standard sea level air pressure by comparison is approximately 1013 millibars.  Also, Hurricane Mitch was a Category 5 hurricane on October 26, 1998 with sustained winds of 180 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 905 millibars. 

These storms illustrate the fact that hurricanes, and sometimes intense hurricanes, can occur in October as well.  My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team will keep you apprised of the latest with Nicole and other tropical systems that may develop.  The next tropical storm that develops in the Atlantic will be named Otto.