What’s Next For Matthew?

Hurricane Matthew (Source: NOAA)

On September 30, Hurricane Matthew became the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean since Felix on September 3-4, 2007.  This ended the second longest streak of the 20^th century.  The longest streak between Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes was the 15 years between a nameless September 1938 hurricane and Hurricane Carol in September 1953. 

Matthew intensified rapidly while in the south central Caribbean Sea with ideal conditions for intensification.  It grew from a minimal Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph to a Category 5 monster with sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 940 millibars in less than 24 hours.  Meteorologists use air pressure as a more accurate measure of the hurricane intensity than wind speed. 

The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm is.  Standard sea level air pressure is approximately 1013 millibars, while Matthew’s lowest air pressure was 934 millibars.  However, that didn’t occur until after it had weakened to Category 4 intensity, where it’s been since Saturday.  Distinguished scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University, pointed out that “Matthew is now the longest-lived Cat. 4-5 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean on record.”  Matthew’s air pressure while at Category 5 intensity was the highest air pressure in an Atlantic Category 5 hurricane (940 millibars) since September 1971 when Hurricane Edith had a minimum air pressure of 943 millibars. 

A lot of uncertainty remains as to exactly where Hurricane Matthew will track after its devastating journey across Haiti and eastern Cuba into the Bahamas.  The National Hurricane Center reported this morning that Matthew became the first Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in Haiti since Cleo in 1964.  Matthew was still at Category 4 intensity as of the 11 A.M. advisory from the National Hurricane Center with sustained winds of 145 mph and is expected to track northward.  It’s vital that everyone along the U.S. East Coast pays attention to local meteorologists for the latest forecasts and updates. 

There have been similar Atlantic hurricanes to Hurricane Matthew, such as Hurricane David in 1979.  David was also a Category 5 hurricane at peak intensity with sustained winds of 175 mph.  However, David made landfall as a Category 4 storm on the island of Dominica and passed through the Bahamas before making landfall on the east coast of Florida as a Category 2 hurricane.  It tracked northward and the remnants of David brought rain and wind as far north as New England.  Hurricane Hazel was the last October hurricane to make landfall in the Carolinas in 1954.  My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team will continue to keep you updated with the latest on the intensity and track of Hurricane Matthew.