Dramatic Temperature Swings and Snow Potential

March 1993 Snow in Washington, D.C.

It’s somewhat ironic given how warm this winter has been that the talk among Washingtonians is about the increasing potential for a significant March winter storm.  That would be roughly 24 years after the eastern United States saw the “Superstorm of 1993.”  Although less than earlier in the winter, Washington, D.C. does average 1.3” of snow in March.

Mid-Atlantic residents have had a temperature roller coaster over the first third of the month.  The month got off to an exceptionally warm start with a high of 80 degrees on March 1^st.  That was the third earliest 80-degree temperature on record in Washington, D.C.  Severe weather and four more days with highs of at least 60 degrees have occurred since then in the Nation’s Capital. However, there has been a major shift in the weather pattern and Washingtonians are in the midst of the longest stretch of colder than average temperatures since early January.  

Following the warmest February on record, the National Park Service initially expected peak bloom of the Cherry Blossoms that could rival the 1990 record for earliest ever (March 15).  However, the January-like temperatures that have enveloped the DC Metro Area since then have not only pushed that back but could create another problem entirely.  National Park Service officials report that the really cold temperatures over the next several nights could significantly damage the buds that have already come out on the cherry trees.  

The 2016-2017 winter season has only featured 1.4” of snow in the Nation’s Capital to this point that would be the smallest seasonal total since the 1997-1998 winter (0.1”).  However, how much snow ends up occurring next week is largely dependent on the track of a coastal storm that’s expected to develop off the southeast coast.  Unlike earlier in the winter, it’s more difficult to get accumulating snowfall in March.  That’s because the sun angle is higher and temperatures tend to be warmer.  

However, as recently as 2014, Washingtonians saw significant March snow does occur under the right circumstances.  Area residents experienced the snowiest St. Patrick’s Day on record in 2014 when a winter storm brought a total of 7.2”.  Most of that snow occurred overnight which offset the higher March sun angle.  Temperatures can change dramatically over a short period of time in March as was illustrated during this 2014 storm when temperatures at National Airport when from a high and low of 70/47 degrees on March 15 to 32/27 degrees on March 17.

Much like three years ago, temperatures have cooled dramatically this weekend in Washington, D.C.  Following a high temperature of 74 degrees on March 9, high temperatures today are only expected to reach the upper 30s and low 40s.  Overnight low temperatures will be in the teens and twenties and that could harm any delicate vegetation, like the cherry blossoms or any fruit trees that already have buds.