February and Groundhog Day

U.S. Drought Monitor Index

This year has picked up where 2017 ended with very dry conditions in the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Severe drought conditions now exist in the DC-Baltimore corridor, following DC’s fourth driest January on record (only 0.94” of rain).  The Nation’s Capital has a rainfall deficit of 9.26” since September 1, 2017, and of nearly 4.5” just since December 1 when meteorological winter began.

The last time DC residents had significant rainfall was when 1.07” fell on November 7.  There have been a few wetter than average months here and there in the Nation’s Capital, but 24 of the last 30 months have been drier than average dating back to August 2015.  During that time, DC’s rainfall deficit has swelled to more than 17”.  That helps explain the expanding area of moderate to severe drought conditions in the Mid-Atlantic Region.

Although February is DC’s snowiest month of the year on average with 5.7”, it’s also the driest month with an average of only 2.62” of liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow).  Fourteen of the last 20 February’s have been drier than average in Washington, D.C.  That’s despite the second and fourth snowiest February’s on record in 2010 and 2003, respectively.

Average temperatures in Washington, D.C. range from a high/low of 44°/29° on February 1 to 51°/34° on February 28.  February’s warmest temperature on record in the Nation’s Capital is 84° on February 25, 1930.  DC’s coldest February temperature is -15° on February 11, 1899.  That’s also the coldest overall temperature on record in Washington, D.C.  

It’s also interesting to point out that over the last 20 years the Nation’s Capital has had a total of 15 record high February temperatures (including record high and record high low temperatures) and only one record low temperature.  Weather measurements for the Nation’s Capital are made at National Airport.  By comparison, Dulles Airport has had a total of 23 record high temperatures and 18 record low temperatures (including record lows and record low high temperatures) during that time.  That can be largely attributed to differences in local geography and the fact that weather records only go back to the 1960s at Dulles, compared to the 1870s downtown.

Since today is “Groundhog Day,” Punxsutawney Phil deserves an honorable mention.  This year marks the 25^th anniversary of the iconic film, “Groundhog Day” that helped make him an indelible part of pop culture.  Since 1887, “Phil” has seen his shadow 103 times (meaning “six more weeks of winter”), compared to no shadow only 18 times.  Although a sentimental favorite, he doesn’t have a high rate of forecasting success with an accuracy rate of less than 40%.  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects a 33% chance of below normal temperatures this February with above average precipitation for the DC Metro Area.  That would an excellent way to alleviate the ongoing drought conditions.