February’s Halfway Point

February is the third and final month of meteorological winter.  Now that February’s midway point has arrived, we have a more accurate idea of how the 2017-2018 winter will finish compared to average.

December and January were both exceptionally dry months in the DC Metro area, with significantly less rain and snow than average.  Only 1.44” of rain fell in Washington, D.C. from December 1, 2017 through January 31, 2018.  That’s 4.42” less rain than average and nearly 8” less snow than average for the two-month period.  In addition, the 1.44” of combined rain and liquid snow equivalent was DC’s driest December-January since December 1980 and January 1981 (1.03”).  

The exceptionally dry end of 2017 and start to 2018 contributed to moderate to severe drought conditions across the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Fortunately, February has gotten off to a wetter than average start, with a total of 3.9” of rain at National Airport as of February 14.  There have been three days with more than an inch of rain in the Nation’s Capital this month that have led to some improvement in the DC Area’s drought conditions.  The last time an inch or more of rain occurred three times in a calendar month in Washington, D.C. was in June 2015.

However, DC hasn’t had any measurable snow since January 17.  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that generally warmer than average conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the month.  If February 2018 finishes without any measurable snowfall in the Nation’s Capital, then that would be the first time since 2004.  That would also make this winter’s seasonal snow total only 3.1”, or roughly 20% of DC’s annual average of 15.4”.  It would also be DC’s second consecutive winter with well below average snowfall. 

Aside from the dry weather, the dominant DC Area weather story this winter was the exceptional cold from December 27 through January 7.  High temperatures in Washington, D.C. remained at or below freezing on 9 of those 11 days.  DC’s high temperature of 23° on December 31, 2017 was the coldest December high temperature since 1989.

In contrast, temperatures over the first half of February have been almost as mild as they have been wet.  Through February 14, DC’s average temperature (combining daily high and low temperatures) was 1.5° warmer than average.  However, that pales in comparison to February 2017, which was DC’s warmest on record and finished more than 8° warmer than average.  Still, February 2018 is likely to become DC’s third consecutive warmer than average February.