DC's Brief Respite from Cooler than Average Temperatures

Early November has been quite chilly in the Nation’s Capital.  Fortunately, today’s high temperatures in the upper 60s have been more comfortable but still not close to DC’s average November 11 high of 60°.  That follows consecutive days on Friday and Saturday that had December-like high temperatures in the mid-40s.  This month has also gotten off to a dry start with only 0.06” of rain at National Airport since November 1.  

Some DC Area residents saw a few snow flurries on Friday, November 8, that contributed to the winter-like ambiance so far this month.  A few more flakes are possible tomorrow morning, as the coldest air since last winter arrives and the rain tapers off.  Only minor accumulations on grassy surfaces are possible.  High temperatures on Wednesday will remain in the 30s, making it feel more like January than the first half of November.  Some of the DC Area airports could flirt with record low-high temperatures on Wednesday.

High temperatures in the 30s are relatively rare in the Nation’s Capital during the first half of November.  DC’s coolest November average high temperature doesn’t occur until the end of the month and is still a relatively mild 52°.  There have been only three days in the last 25 years that high temperatures in DC have been in the 40s between November 1 and November 15, the most recent being November 11, 2017 (39°).  

It’s hard to remain extremely cold for very long in November.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s once again.  Eight of the first 10 days of November have been colder than average in DC and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects predominantly colder than average weather to continue through November 20.  Warmer than average temperatures are expected over the final third of the month.  However, by that point, it’s all but assured November 2019 will finish as DC’s second consecutive colder than average November. 

While November 2018 was 3.4° colder than average and DC’s snowiest November since 1989, the rest of last winter was warmer than average.  Before last year, November 2014 was the last colder than average November in the Nation’s Capital and Washingtonians may recall how frigid the 2014-2015 winter was (despite a warmer than average December).  That helps indicate that a colder than average monthly November temperature, while uncomfortable, is a poor indicator of what the upcoming winter season will be like.  Meteorological winter gets underway on December 1.