It’s hard to believe that Washingtonians were sizzling at 98° on October 2. But, this November has gotten off to a chilly start due to a shift in the position of the jet stream compared to where it was for much of last month. By this Friday, high temperatures in the Nation’s Capital will be in the 40s, significantly colder than the November 8 average high of 61°. The last time DC had a daily high temperature of less than 50° was on March 21 (49°).
Some may wonder whether a colder than average November
foreshadows what the upcoming winter season will be like. There have been some winters when November’s
weather in the Nation’s Capital did, in fact, do that. Such was the case during the 1995-1996 winter
season. November 1995 was 6.5° colder
than average in Washington, D.C. with 0.5” of snow. As longtime Washingtonians may recall,
1995-1996 was DC’s third snowiest winter on record with 46” – roughly triple
the seasonal average of 15.4”. That
winter was also 2.9° colder than average and featured a moderate episode of La
Nina.
On the other hand, November 2009 was 2.6° warmer than average in Washington, D.C. and gave way to what became DC’s snowiest winter. A total of 56.1” of snow fell in the Nation’s Capital during the 2009-2010 winter, which broke the previous record of 54.4” from 1898-99. The 2009 - 2010 winter was also 2.4° colder than average. However, unlike the 1995-1996 La Nina winter, it featured one of the strongest El Nino’s on record. One of El Nino’s hallmarks is an active southern branch of the jet stream that can play a key role in coastal storms during the winter. These factors help illustrate that while November’s weather can sometimes foreshadow what the upcoming winter season will be like, there are too many variables to rely solely on November weather as a predictor.
November 2018 was DC’s wettest on record and was also 3.1° cooler than average. The Nation’s Capital had 1.4” of snow on November 15, 2018, making last November DC’s snowiest since 1989. However, last winter ultimately finished 1.3° warmer than average. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects below average temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic Region this month with near average precipitation.
On the other hand, November 2009 was 2.6° warmer than average in Washington, D.C. and gave way to what became DC’s snowiest winter. A total of 56.1” of snow fell in the Nation’s Capital during the 2009-2010 winter, which broke the previous record of 54.4” from 1898-99. The 2009 - 2010 winter was also 2.4° colder than average. However, unlike the 1995-1996 La Nina winter, it featured one of the strongest El Nino’s on record. One of El Nino’s hallmarks is an active southern branch of the jet stream that can play a key role in coastal storms during the winter. These factors help illustrate that while November’s weather can sometimes foreshadow what the upcoming winter season will be like, there are too many variables to rely solely on November weather as a predictor.
November 2018 was DC’s wettest on record and was also 3.1° cooler than average. The Nation’s Capital had 1.4” of snow on November 15, 2018, making last November DC’s snowiest since 1989. However, last winter ultimately finished 1.3° warmer than average. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects below average temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic Region this month with near average precipitation.
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