Longing for Snow?

NOAA's Warm Temperature Outlook for the East Coast in late-February

February 2020 has gotten off to a warm and wet start in the Nation’s Capital with measurable rainfall on eight of the first 11 days.  In fact, more rain is on tap later today and tonight.  Every day so far this month has been warmer than average and NOAA expects warmer than average conditions to generally continue through February 25 in the Mid-Atlantic Region.  That’s not to say a few cold days could sneak in here and there – as are expected Friday and Saturday – but they will be outliers.

This means DC’s snow drought will continue.  Washingtonians have been stuck on 0.6” of snow for the season since January 18.  That was the last time any snowfall occurred in the Nation’s Capital as temperatures have been too warm.  February is DC’s snowiest month of the year with an average of 5.7”, so it’s quite unusual to have no measurable snowfall.  There have been only two February’s over the last 20 years with no measurable snowfall, with the most recent in 2017.  Not coincidently, February 2017 was DC’s warmest on record.

If February is warm with little or no snow, then that typically means the winter finishes with below average snowfall in the Nation’s Capital.  However, DC has had five warmer than average February’s since 2000 that were followed by colder than average March’s.  Those five February’s all had below average snowfall in Washington, D.C., but those five subsequent March’s all had measurable snowfall.  That means Washingtonians have reason to expect at least a little snow in March. 

February 2018 was a good example.  It was DC’s third warmest on record and finished with only 0.2” of snow.  On the other hand, March 2018 was 1.7° colder than February.  It’s rare for February to finish as a warmer month than March in the Nation’s Capital.  Making March 2018 even more unusual is that the largest snow event of the 2017 – 2018 winter season occurred with 4.1” on March 21.  Like in 2018, March 2017 was cooler than February.  March 2017 also brought DC residents 2” of snow, making it the snowiest month of the 2016-2017 winter season. 

February 2020 is well-positioned to finish as the third February in the last four years to rank among the Top 10 warmest on record.  That’s led to disappointment among DC Area winter weather enthusiasts as NOAA expects the warmer than average conditions to linger for the remainder of the month.  However, March has been DC’s snowiest month of the year four times since 2013 so it’s too early to give up hope for the 2019-2020 winter season.