Odds for Significant Snowfall?

With President’s Day 2020 in the rear view mirror, the odds for significant snowfall drop considerably in the Nation’s Capital.  None of DC’s Top Ten Snowfalls have occurred on or after February 20.

Daily average high/low temperatures have already risen in the Nation’s Capital from mid-January levels of 43°/28° to 48°/31° today.  DC’s average high temperature rises to 51° by the end of February and that’s commensurate with the rising sun angle.  Not only is the amount of daylight increasing by a few minutes every week, but the intensity of the sun’s rays continue to increase as spring draws closer.

Consequently, the amount of sustained cold air necessary for significant snow events is harder to come by.  However, there have been multiple small to moderate snow events from late February through late March.  Multiple snowfalls of 4” or more have also occurred after February 20 in the Nation’s Capital, most recently on March 21, 2018 with 4.1”.  Double-digit snowfall is just exceedingly rare at this point in the season.

The “Superstorm of 1993” was DC’s 10^th largest March snowstorm with 6.6” at National Airport.  Then, in 2014, 7.2” occurred on March 16-17, giving DC residents a rare snowy St. Patrick’s Day knocking 1993 from the Top Ten.  It’s worth noting that the 1993 “Superstorm” remains the ninth largest snow event at Dulles Airport (14.1”).  The snow switched to sleet in DC during the height of the 1993 storm, illustrating how difficult it is to get an adequate amount of cold air for a significant winter storm in late February and March.  

The right elements do come together on occasion and March can be a snowy month in the Nation’s Capital. Such was the case as recently as 2014, when a series of small to moderate sized snowstorms occurred.  March 2014 had a total of 12.7” and that made it DC’s snowiest March since 1960.  In fact, March has been DC’s snowiest month of the year four times since 2013.

Although this winter has largely been a disappointment for winter weather enthusiasts in the DC Metro Area, it’s too early to rule out the possibility for any additional snowfall.  However, it’s just getting more difficult for the right ingredients to come together. 

Washington, D.C.’s Ten Largest March Snowstorms (Source: NWS)

1.  12.0” – March 27-28, 1891
2.  11.5” – March 28-29, 1942
3.  10.7” – March 7 – 8, 1941
4.  10.0” – March 15 – 16, 1900
5.  9.8” –   March 3 – 4, 1909
6.  8.4” –   March 9, 1999
7.  8.0” –   March 14 – 16, 1937
8.  7.9” –   March 2 – 3, 1960
9.  7.4” –   March 7 – 8, 1911
10. 7.2” –  March 16 – 17, 2014