D.C.’s February Weather Outlook: NOAA vs. Punxsutawney Phil

 

Photo Credit: Lee Laudicina

January 2022 finished as D.C.’s coldest since 2014 with 20 colder than average days.  High temperatures held at or below freezing three times last month, with lows in the teens on four occasions.  It was also a snowier than average month with 12.3” officially at Reagan National Airport.  That made it D.C.’s snowiest overall month since January 2016 (18.8”). 

Local winter weather enthusiasts may know that D.C. hasn’t had a back-to-back January and February with double-digit snowfall totals since 1996.  That helps illustrate that while February can see appreciable snowfall, it’s been uncommon following a snowy January in recent decades.

According to NOAA, February is the snowiest month of the year on average in Washington, D.C. with 5.0”.  That statistic was updated last year to reflect the 30-year period from 1991-2020.  While six of D.C.’s 10 largest snowstorms occurred in February, 13 of the last 20 February’s had below average snowfall.  Not since 2015, has February been a snowier than average month in the Nation’s Capital.  February 2015 might stand out to some Washingtonians since it was D.C.’s coldest February since 1979.

Temperatures rise throughout the month of February, with average daily high/low temperatures of 46°/30° on February 1 and 52°/34° on February 28.  Six of the last 10 February’s have been warmer than average in the Nation’s Capital, including three of the Top 10 warmest (2012, 2017, 2018).  D.C.’s coldest February temperature occurred on February 11, 1889 (-15°).  By comparison, D.C.’s warmest February temperature overall was 84° (February 25, 1930).  In fact, D.C.’s earliest 80° temperature of the year occurred relatively recently on February 21, 2018 (82°).

Despite a mild start to the month, colder temperatures will return Friday and last into next week.  However, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects February 2022 to finish as a warmer than average month with near average precipitation.  The right ingredients need to come together only once to produce a significant winter storm, even in a warmer than average month.  Washingtonians should know that appreciable snowfall can also occur well into March.  The Nation’s Capital has had five snowier than average March’s over the last decade.

Since today is “Groundhog Day,” Punxsutawney Phil deserves an honorable mention.  This year marks the 29^th anniversary of the iconic film “Groundhog Day” that helped make him an indelible part of pop culture.  While “Phil” saw his shadow this morning, meaning six more weeks of winter, he’s only been “right” 40% of the time over the last decade according to NOAA.