Is Winter Over?

 

As February comes to a close, the odds for significant snowfall drop considerably in the Nation’s Capital.  None of D.C.’s Top Ten Snowfalls occurred on or after February 20.

Daily average high/low temperatures have already risen in the Nation’s Capital from mid-January levels of 44°/30° to 51°/34° today.  That’s to be expected given the increasing amount of daylight, as well as the increasing sun angle during the month of February.  Not only is the amount of daylight increasing by a few minutes every week, but the intensity of the sun’s rays also increases as spring draws closer. 

Consequently, the amount of sustained cold air necessary for significant snow events is harder to come by.  However, multiple snowfalls of 4” or more have still occurred after February 20 in the Nation’s Capital, most recently on March 21, 2018 with 4.1”.  But, double-digit snowfall is exceedingly rare at this point in the season.  Also snow doesn’t tend to last as long in late-February and March as larger temperature fluctuations are more likely combined with the higher sun angle.

The “Superstorm of 1993” was DC’s 10^th largest March snowstorm at the time with 6.6” officially at Reagan National Airport.  Then, 7.2” fell on March 16-17, 2014, giving D.C. residents a rare snowy St. Patrick’s Day and knocking 1993 from the Top 10.  It’s worth noting that the 1993 “Superstorm” remains the ninth largest snow event at Dulles Airport (14.1”).   

The right elements do come together on occasion and March can be a snowy month in the Nation’s Capital. Such was the case as recently as 2014, when a series of small to moderate snowstorms occurred.  March 2014 had a total of 12.7” and that made it D.C.’s snowiest March since 1960.  In fact, March has been D.C.’s snowiest month of the year four times since 2013.  Consequently, March is the only month in which average snowfall increased when NOAA updated its daily and monthly weather averages to reflect the 30-year period of 1991-2020.  That data set replaced the previous period of 1981-2010.  The Nation’s Capital averaged 1.3” of March snowfall for the period of 1981 through 2010, but now averages 2.0” of March snowfall.

Snowfall this winter has been feast or famine in the Nation’s Capital.  No measureable snowfall occurred in December 2021 or this month.  However, last month finished as D.C.’s snowiest month in six years with 12.7” of snow.  Although it’s too early to rule out the possibility of additional snowfall this season, it’s getting more difficult by the day for the right ingredients to come together. 

Washington, D.C.’s Ten Largest March Snowstorms (Source: NWS)

1.  12.0” – March 27-28, 1891
2.  11.5” – March 28-29, 1942
3.  10.7” – March 7 – 8, 1941
4.  10.0” – March 15 – 16, 1900
5.  9.8” –   March 3 – 4, 1909
6.  8.4” –   March 9, 1999
7.  8.0” –   March 14 – 16, 1937
8.  7.9” –   March 2 – 3, 1960
9.  7.4” –   March 7 – 8, 1911
10.  7.2” –   March 16 – 17, 2014

DC’s Snowiest Months with any of the Top 10 Snowfalls that Occurred in Those Months

1.  35.2” (February 1899): 20” (February 12-14)
2.  32.1” (February 2010): 17.8” (February 5-6)
3.  31.5” (January 1928): 28” (January 27-29)
4.  30.6” (February 1979): 18.7” (February 18-19)
5.  28.7” (February 2003): 16.4” (February 16-18)
6.  24.4” (January 1935)
7.  23.8” (January 1996): 17.3” (January 7-9)
8.  22.6” (January 1918)
9.  21.0” (February 1983): 16.6” (February 10-11)
10.  20.8” (January 1987)