Weather’s Impact on DC’s Cherry Blossoms

 

Cherry Blossoms in Full Splendor

The first week of March was exceptionally warm in Washington, D.C. with an average temperature 5.4° above average.  That follows last month which finished as D.C.’s third warmest February on record.  This combination has put the world-famous Yoshino Cherry Blossoms along D.C.’s Tidal Basin on the fast-track to an early bloom.

D.C.’s cherry blossoms are currently in stage three out of six of development.  The National Park Service expects them to reach peak bloom between March 22 – March 25.  That’s more than a week earlier than the average date of April 4.  “Peak bloom” is defined as when 70% of the blossoms emerge.  How warm or cold the winter and early spring are determines when they reach their peak. 

The earliest that peak bloom has occurred was on March 15, 1990.  High temperatures were at record levels in the 80s on five consecutive days from March 12 – 16, 1990, which helped the blossoms reach peak bloom on March 15.  A relatively early peak bloom also occurred on March 20 in both 2012 and 2020 after a very warm late winter and early spring.

By comparison, the latest the cherry blossoms reached peak bloom was on April 18, 1958.  That’s because February and March 1958 were colder and much snowier than average with a two-month snow total of 27.8”.  More recently, Washingtonians experienced colder and snowier than average February and March’s in both 2014 and 2015.  That contributed to a relatively late peak bloom on April 10 of both years.

When the buds are developing on the cherry trees, temperatures in the 20s for any length of time can damage them.  Such was the case in March 2017 when, according to the National Park Service, “...a late frost that occurred between March 14 and March 16 caused roughly half of the blossoms to be lost.”  Once they reach peak bloom, gusty winds can reduce the length of peak bloom.  Given ideal conditions, peak bloom can last roughly five to seven days, giving D.C. Area residents and tourists alike ample opportunity to enjoy their splendor.

Large fluctuations in temperature are common in the Nation’s Capital in March.  For example, it has remained above freezing since February 18 (28°).  These warm overnight periods have helped accelerate the arrival of the cherry blossoms.  However, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook over the next 1-2 weeks is for below average temperatures in the Nation’s Capital.  Fortunately, that should not harm the cherry blossoms since temperatures aren’t expected to fall below freezing downtown for any length of time.  It could serve to delay slightly the peak bloom along the Tidal Basin.