Did the Groundhog see his Shadow ?

Those tired of this week’s frigid cold and snow should be pleased that Pennsylvania’s “Punxsutawney Phil” did not see his shadow this morning – meaning an early spring.  Folklore aside, it will actually feel more like spring the next few days.  People shouldn’t have too much faith in “Phil” since he’s only been accurate 39% of the time.  

Although February got off to a frigid start yesterday with temperatures in the low to mid 20s across the DC Metro Area with light snow, a major pattern shift is in the cards.  While no record cold occurred downtown, DC’s high and low temperature of 25°/10° on January 31 was the coldest day in the Nation’s Capital since January 7, 2018 (23°/8°).  Meanwhile, Dulles Airport’s low temperature of -2° on Thursday was its coldest temperature since February 24, 2015 (-4°).  High temperatures will, however, be much warmer over the upcoming week.  

Average temperatures in the Nation’s Capital range from 44°/29° on February 1 to 51°/33° on February 28.  DC’s warmest temperature on record for the month occurred on February 25, 1930 (84°).  Meanwhile, DC’s coldest February temperature of -15° was on February 11, 1899.  On February 21 last year, DC’s high temperature reached 82°.  That was significant for two reasons: 1) It a record high temperature for the date; and 2) It was the earliest in the year that Washington, D.C. had its first 80° temperature.

Twelve of the last 20 February’s have been warmer than average in Washington, D.C. dating back to 1999.  However, Washingtonians experienced three consecutive colder than average February’s from 2013 through 2015, the longest such streak since 1993 – 1996.  Over the last 20 years, there has also been a combined 20 record high and record high-low temperatures in Washington, D.C., with only one record low temperature (5° on February 20, 2015).  That coincides with an increased urban heat island effect, as urbanization and development have increased dramatically in and around the Nation’s Capital in recent decades.  

February is the snowiest month of the year in Washington, D.C. with a monthly average of 5.7”.  Six of DC’s 10 largest snowstorms have occurred in February, including some epic storms as “Snowmageddon” in 2010 and the President’s Day weekend storms of 1979, 1983 and 2003.  However, 14 of the last 20 February’s have had below average snowfall.  Only six of the last 20 February’s have been rainier than average (2.62”) dating back to 1999.  

NOAA says there’s an equal chance for February 2019 to finish with above or below average temperatures in the immediate DC Metro area, with a 40% chance for a wetter than average month.  After a warmer than average start to February, colder than average weather is expected to return by the middle of the month.  Periods of above and below average temperatures of similar duration tend to produce near average temperatures as a whole.