Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Sally is the Latest Gulf Coast Hurricane

 

NOAA's Estimated Rainfall Totals for Hurricane Sally



Hurricane Sally regained Category 2 intensity shortly before it made landfall early this morning with sustained winds of 105 mph near Gulf Shores, Alabama.  Now that Sally has made landfall, its forward speed – or lack thereof – is critically important.  While the hurricane is gradually weakening over land, the widespread heavy rain will lead to devastating flooding.  The flooding will be made worse by Sally’s slow movement and flash flood watches have been issued now as far north as southern Virginia. 

There have been other significant autumn hurricanes that have made landfall near where Hurricane Sally did. 

Michael (2018) – Unlike Sally, Hurricane Michael didn’t slow down as it neared the U.S. Gulf Coast.  Rather, Michael continued moving north and intensified right up until it made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph.  Michael became only the fourth Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States and was both damaging and deadly.  It was the strongest hurricane of the 2018 season and the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Andrew in 1992.

Georges (1998) – Although peaking as a Category 4 hurricane while east of the Caribbean Islands, Georges made landfall as a strong Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph near Biloxi, Mississippi on September 28.  It was a moderate to high impact storm along the U.S. Gulf Coast.  However, its legacy in the Caribbean was particularly severe where it was a deadly storm that left a widespread swath of damage.

Opal (1995) – Opal was the strongest hurricane of the active 1995 season and strongest Atlantic hurricane, overall, since Andrew in 1992.  Hurricane Opal tracked over the exceptionally warm water of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico.  That combined with favorable atmospheric conditions allowed Opal to rapidly intensity to Category 4 status with sustained winds of 150 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 916 millibars (mb). 

Opal was the strongest hurricane on record in terms of lowest air pressure to not achieve Category 5 intensity, surpassing 1985’s Hurricane Gloria (145 mph / 919 mb at peak intensity).  Fortunately, Opal began an eyewall replacement cycle shortly after reaching peak intensity early on October 4.  That led it to weaken to Category 3 status before making landfall in the Florida panhandle later on October 4.  Opal’s remnants brought heavy rain and severe weather to the DC Metro Area on October 5.

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