Hurricane Season 2021

 

Tropical Storm Arthur, May 2020 (Source: NASA)

Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 9 – 15) is designed for people living in at-risk areas to assess their personal risk, to determine whether or not they live in an evacuation zone, and review homeowners insurance to see if it covers damages from a tropical system.  May is an especially important time to review these procedures since the Atlantic hurricane season officially gets underway on June 1. 

While tropical storms and hurricanes are less frequent in June and July than they are later in the season, there has been at least one named storm prior to June 1 every year since 2015.  The current streak of six consecutive seasons that got underway before June 1 is a record. 

Storms that develop early in the season often develop closer to land areas in the Gulf of Mexico or in the western Caribbean Sea.  While not usually as strong as storms that develop later, they more frequently impact land masses due to their proximity to the coast.  Two named storms developed last May in what turned out to be a record season with a total of 30 named tropical storms, including 14 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes.  A “major” hurricane is defined as being a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with 111/+ mph sustained winds around the center of circulation.

While the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect a tropical system to develop anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean Basin in the next five days, the tropical Atlantic has been quite active the last several years.  In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently updated its annual averages for a normal season to have 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.  That’s for the 30-year period of 1991-2020 and represents an increase over the previous 30-year period (1981-2010) when an “average” season had only 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Since 1995, all but six hurricane seasons have been busier than average.  That represents a significant increase over the previous 25-year period.  While there were several active seasons prior to 1995 that produced destructive hurricanes (e.g. Andrew, Hugo), the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes has been higher in recent decades.

It’s important to remember that an active hurricane season doesn’t guarantee a deadly or destructive season.  For example, the 2010 Atlantic season was very active with 19 tropical storms, including 12 hurricanes, but the United States largely escaped any significant impacts.  Compare that with the 1992 season when only one major hurricane developed.  But, that was Hurricane Andrew that remains one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.  While hurricane forecasts have improved in recent years, it’s not possible to tell where a particular storm will track until it develops.  That’s why advance preparation is vital to protect life and property later.