Hurricane Season Update

 

Ocean City, Maryland  (Photo Credit: Ashley Adams)

Experts at Colorado State University recently updated their 2021 seasonal hurricane forecast.  They expect a total of 20 named tropical storms of which 9 become hurricanes, including 4 major hurricanes.  These totals include the five named storms that have already occurred.  A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or higher with maximum sustained winds of least 111 mph. 

When Tropical Storm Elsa was named on July 1, it became the earliest fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic.  Elsa was also the first Atlantic hurricane of 2021, having achieved Category 1 status on two separate occasions.  It became the first Atlantic hurricane of the season more than three weeks earlier than last season (July 25: Hanna).  Fortunately, Elsa weakened below hurricane status before its landfall in the United States. 

Elsa was the third tropical storm of 2021 to make landfall in the United States, following Claudette and Danny.  That’s not unusual since storms that develop early in the season more often than not develop closer to the United States.  That’s because the water is warmer in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea where early season tropical systems tend to develop. 

The fast start to this season also led CSU to call for a total of 20 named storms (or 15 the rest of the way), which is higher than the 18 they called for in early June.  NOAA also expects a busier than average season and will update its forecast in early August.  Another reason cited by CSU in forecasting a busier than average season is the expectation of ENSO-neutral conditions to continue.  A weak to moderate intensity La Nina may also develop later this summer or fall.  Both factors help create more favorable atmospheric conditions in the tropical Atlantic for development, such as a reduced amount of wind shear and warmer sea surface temperatures.

Elsa was a high-impact tropical storm for much of the eastern United States.  After making landfall in Florida, its impacts were felt up and down the East Coast.  Beneficial rainfall fell as far north as parts of Maine.  The Mid-Atlantic Region and Delmarva Peninsula, in particular, also saw severe weather.  That’s relatively common with landfalling tropical systems as the interaction with land masses causes weak to moderate strength tornadoes.  The next named Atlantic storm this season will be named “Fred.”