DC's early November warmth

An early November day in suburban Washington, D.C.

The nation’s capital has averaged one 80-degree November day roughly every five years dating back to the mid-1990s. Washingtonians already had one 80-degree day on November 1, when the high was 83°. That’s what makes today’s highs near 80° and tomorrow’s highs in the low 80s all the more unusual for the nation’s capital.

Although the nation’s capital had an 80-degree November temperature as recently as 2022 prior to last Friday, there haven’t been two 80-degree November days since 2003. Five of the last seven November’s have also been cooler than average in the nation’s capital so any 80-degree warmth this late in the season has felt especially warm.

While the recent trend has been for November to be a cooler than average month in the nation’s capital, eight of DC’s 15 warmest November’s have occurred just since 2000. NOAA’s current weather averages (for temperatures and precipitation) are updated every decade and the current averages reflect the 30-year period of 1991-2020.

That means with the exception of 2022, all eight of DC’s very warm November’s since 2000 were taken into account in NOAA’s updated statistics. Some of that can be attributed to the urban heat island effect, but the overall trend has been for warmer than average temperatures compared to NOAA’s previous 30-year period of 1981-2010.

A warmer and drier than average November doesn’t correlate to a warmer and drier than average winter the same way a colder and wetter than average November doesn’t foreshadow a snowier than average winter. This fall has been warmer and drier than average in the nation’s capital and NOAA’s November outlook is for more of the same.

Not only are more above average temperatures in store for the nation’s capital this week, but drier than average conditions will also continue as my colleagues and I on the WUSA9 Weather Team aren’t expecting any beneficial rainfall over the next 7 – 10 days. 

DC’s Warmest Novembers (Source: National Weather Service)

1. 54.8° (2001)
2. 54.4° (1979, 1975)
3. 54.3° (2020, 1985)
4. 54.0° (1931)
5. 53.7° (2015)
6. 53.3° (1994)
7. 53.1° (2003, 1999)
8. 52.6° (2022, 2016)
9. 52.4° (2011)
10. 52.2° (2009, 1978)
11. 52.0° (1990)
12. 51.8° (1982, 1977, 1946)