An update on DC’s famous cherry blossoms

 

A fine early spring day in suburban Washington, D.C.

The 2024-2025 winter was DC’s coldest in a decade. The nation’s capital also saw more snow during the three-month period from December 2024 through February 2025, than in any winter in six years.

However, the first half of March has seen a significant shift in DC’s weather pattern to warmer than average. Fifteen of the first 17 days had above average temperatures. Consequently, the National Park Service expects the famous Yoshino Cherry Blossoms along the Tidal Basin to reach peak bloom between March 28 and March 31. That’s later than peak bloom has occurred in recent years, but is still earlier than the average peak bloom. “Peak bloom” is defined as when 70% of the blossoms emerge.

Winter and early spring temperatures determine when the blooms reach their peak. The earliest that peak bloom occurred was March 15, 1990. High temperatures were in the 80s on five consecutive days from March 12 – 16, 1990 and that accelerated peak bloom. By comparison, the latest the cherry blossoms reached peak bloom was on April 18, 1958. That’s because February and March 1958 were both very cold and snowy in the nation’s capital. They were more than 5° colder than average.

The cherry blossoms have reached peak bloom earlier in recent years than what they have done historically. That’s because many of the recent winters have been so mild in the nation’s capital. The National Park Service has tracked peak bloom of the cherry blossoms since 1921. Since 1990, the average peak bloom date is March 30.

However, over the last decade, when record warmth far outpaced record cold, March 27 has been the average date peak bloom was declared by the National Park Service. Last year, the peak bloom occurred on its second earliest date of March 17.

Low temperatures are important with respect to the cherry blossoms since temperatures in the 20s for any length of time can damage the buds. Such was the case in March 2017 when, according to the National Park Service, “...a late frost that occurred between March 14 and March 16 caused roughly half of the blossoms to be lost.” Once they reach peak bloom, gusty winds can reduce the length of peak bloom. Given ideal conditions, peak bloom can last roughly five to seven days, giving ample opportunity for people to enjoy their splendor. 

This year’s National Cherry Blossom Festival will begin on March 20. That coincides with the estimated peak bloom of the cherry blossoms. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects near normal temperatures to dominate local weather headlines over the next two weeks and that will help the blossoms slowly develop. It will also help prevent a repeat of the damage extreme cold caused in 2017.