Is another active Atlantic hurricane season coming?

 

Although hurricane season doesn’t officially get underway until June 1, meteorologists and atmospheric scientists have already begun issuing outlooks for the upcoming season. That follows the recent World Meteorological Organization conference that saw three hurricane names from the destructive 2024 season retired (Beryl, Helene and Milton).

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says no El Nino conditions are expected for another season. That means conditions for hurricane development will automatically be more favorable in the tropical Atlantic without the wind shear associated with El Nino conditions.

Water temperatures are warmer than average for much the tropical Atlantic, according to NOAA. Although not as warm as the historically high levels seen in 2024, a warmer than average Atlantic is also conducive for tropical development. Warm, tropical ocean water of 80° or greater to a depth of at least 200’ is typically the benchmark necessary for tropical development, or for a hurricane to maintain its intensity.

Given these conditions, the meteorologists and tropical weather experts at Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach, recently issued its April forecast for the upcoming season. They’re expecting a tenth consecutive busier than average season in 2025, with 17 tropical storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 4 major hurricanes.

An “average” Atlantic hurricane season features 14 tropical storms, 7 of which intensify into hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes. That’s based on NOAA’s statistics for the 30-year period of 1991-2020. A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

More important than the overall number of named storms is where they track once they’ve developed. There have been active seasons with little to no significant impacts from tropical systems in the United States.

There have also been below average seasons when destructive and deadly storms have made landfall. Such was the case during the quiet 1992 season that produced only one major hurricane. However, Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 hurricane that made landfall in the United States on August 24, 1992. Andrew remains one of the costliest natural disasters on record in the United States.