Can DC see another record storm like the “Blizzard of 2016”?

 

A parked car in Bethesda, Maryland (January 2016)

Three of DC’s 10 largest snowstorms have occurred in January. The most recent was the record-setting January 2016 blizzard and the others were the 1922 Knickerbocker Storm and the January 1996 storm. As the tenth anniversary of the January 2016 winter storm is fast approaching, let’s take a closer look at that memorable storm.

The 2015-2016 winter got off to a slow start in the nation’s capital. Most notably, December 2015 became the warmest December on record. There was a major pattern shift to colder than average weather in the middle of January 2016. On January 22-23, 17.8” fell at National Airport.

The epic “Blizzard of 2016,” as it was dubbed, finished tied with 2010’s “Snowmageddon” as DC’s fourth largest winter storm on record with 17.8”. The Blizzard of 2016 is also the largest winter storm on record in Baltimore where 29.2” of snow was measured. 

DC hasn’t seen a winter storm that’s come close to the “Blizzard of 2016” in the decade since. To add to that, there have been only two snowier than average winters in the nation’s capital since then. In addition to last winter, the 2018-2019 winter was also snowier than average.

Many of DC’s snowiest winters have occurred during moderate to strong episodes of El Nino. The 2015-2016 winter season featured a very strong episode of El Nino. Currently, La Nina conditions exist but that doesn’t mean the right ingredients can’t or won’t come together to produce an historic winter storm. It just means it’s less likely than if El Nino conditions were present.

The nation’s capital has experienced seven of its 10 largest winter storms over the last 50 years. In that time, they have occurred as close together as two during the same winter (December 2009, February 2010) or as far apart as nearly 13 years (February 1983 – January 1996). Following the January 1996 winter storm, Washingtonians experienced another Top 10 snowfall in February 2003.

The 2009-2010 winter was unusual to have two Top-10 snowfalls just weeks apart that helped it finish as DC’s snowiest winter on record. The decade since the memorable January 2016 winter storm is quickly becoming closer to the 13-year gap between February 1983 and January 1996, then the six years between “Snowmageddon” and “Blizzard of 2016.” 

Although no official standard exists for how frequently Top-10 snowfalls occur, some would consider the nation’s capital overdue for a major winter storm using the last several decades as a model. The nation’s capital averages 13.7” of annual snowfall, according to NOAA, and has experienced only 1.5” since December 1.