Below average hurricane season is likely

 

Photo Credit: NOAA

NOAA says there is a 55% chance the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be have below-normal level of activity. 

The May hurricane forecast from NOAA is for a seasonal total of 8 to 14 tropical storms (sustained winds of at least 39 mph), of which 3 to 6 intensify into hurricanes (sustained winds of at least 74 mph), with 1 to 3 of those becoming "major" hurricanes (Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph). The seasonal average is for 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. 

NOAA's forecast is similar to the Colorado State University forecast that calls for 13 tropical storms, of which 6 becomes hurricanes, with 2 major hurricanes. Both NOAA and CSU cite the same two primary conditions in their respective forecasts. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in a May 14 update that an 82% chance exists for an episode El Nino to develop by the end of July. El Nino conditions correlate to a higher amounts of wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear are winds that differ in speed or direction with altitude. Sea surface temperatures also tend to be cooler in the tropical Atlantic during an El Nino event.

Also, hurricanes typically require warm ocean water of sufficient depth to develop, commonly at least 80° Fahrenheit to a depth of 200’. Currently, sea surface temperatures are slightly warmer than average in the “MDR” or "Main Development Region" of the Atlantic Ocean. However, that’s down significantly from the record warm water temperatures that existed in this part of the Atlantic in 2024. If 2026 is a below average season, then it would be only the second below average season this decade.

Regardless of how many named storms develop, the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is less important than where they track. An otherwise quiet season could be very destructive and deadly. For example, the 1992 Atlantic season was relatively quiet with only 7 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. But that major hurricane was Andrew, which made landfall in southern Florida as a rare Category 5 storm. Andrew was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history at the time and remains one of the costliest hurricanes on record. Meanwhile, the 2010 season was an active one with 19 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, but with no significant impacts in the United States.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially gets underway on June 1. The first named storm of the season will be “Arthur.”