Destructive October hurricanes

 

Wilma makes landfall in Florida, October 2005 (Source: NOAA)

Although the tropics tend to get quieter as October wears on, it can still be an active month in parts of the tropical Atlantic. The last two October’s have produced devastating hurricanes, while Isaias also developed earlier this month.

Melissa: Last October saw the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 season. Melissa was the final named storm of the season and broke a slew of records. It ranks as one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Ocean Basin and was the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in Jamaica. At peak intensity, Melissa had sustained winds of 190 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 892 millibars (mb). By comparison, standard sea level air pressure is approximately 1013 mb. The lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm is.

Milton: The second Category 5 hurricane of the 2024 season, Milton had peak winds of 180 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 895 mb. Fortunately, Milton weakened to a still powerful Category 3 storm when it made landfall on the west coast of Florida on October 9. It was an exceptionally destructive storm that caused $34.3 billion in damages (2024 dollars), according to NOAA, along with 32 fatalities. Milton’s lowest pressure of 895 mb tied it with 2005’s Hurricane Rita as the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record.

Michael (2018): Hurricane Michael became only the fourth Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States and first since 1992. It also remains one of the few hurricanes that intensified up until its landfall. Michael reached peak intensity as it made landfall along the Florida panhandle with sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 919 mb. That part of Florida had seen several Category 3 hurricanes, but never a Category 4 or 5 storm. Michael caused $31.2 billion in U.S. damages (2024 dollars) and claimed 16 lives during the storm, according to NOAA.

Wilma (2005):  Before impacting the United States, Wilma became the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record with a minimum central air pressure of 882 mb. Its sustained winds reached 185 mph, making it a Category 5 hurricane. Fortunately, Wilma weakened significantly before it reached southwest Florida where it made landfall on October 24 as a Category 3 storm. It caused $30 billion in damages (2024 dollars) and five fatalities.

Mitch (1998): Mitch was upgraded to hurricane status on October 24 in the western Caribbean Sea. Due to favorable environmental conditions, Mitch quickly intensified into a Category 5 storm. At peak intensity, Hurricane Mitch had sustained winds of 180 mph and a minimum air pressure of 905 mb. Although Mitch weakened before impacting Central America, it caused devastating flooding in Nicaragua and Honduras. NOAA’s estimated death toll for Hurricane Mitch was approximately 11,000. 

Weather Quiz

 

Hurricane Milton, October 2024 (Source: NOAA)

What October hurricane gave Washington, D.C. its highest wind gust on record ?

A.  Milton


B.  Sandy


C.  Hazel


D.  Isaias

DC's winter weather outlook

 

A chilly October morning in suburban Washington, D.C.

The nation’s capital averages 13.7” of annual snowfall, according to NOAA. Sometimes it comes in a series of smaller storms as it did during the 2014-2015 winter season. In other winters, it occurs primarily during one large storm such as during the 2015-2016 winter. Although last winter finished as DC’s coldest in more than 20 years, it also finished with below average snowfall. 

There are a lot of factors to consider when preparing a winter weather outlook, such as the status of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, “ENSO.” That refers to the presence of El Nino, La Nina or a neutral phase, or the presence of neither. NOAA expects an intensifying El Nino to play a major role in the upcoming winter season.

An El Nino winter is often warmer and wetter than average in the Mid-Atlantic Region. That’s because one of the hallmarks of an El Nino winter in the United States is a more active southern branch of the jet stream. Coastal storms sometimes develop along the southern branch of the jet stream and can become significant snow producers in the eastern United States if there’s an adequate amount of cold air.

Although many of DC’s largest winter storms have occurred during El Nino winters (2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958), having another strong El Nino this winter doesn’t mean this will be another snowy one. The 1997-1998 winter, for example, also featured a strong El Nino but the nation’s capital saw only 0.1” of snow.

During the most recent “very strong” episode of El Nino in 2015-2016, the nation’s capital had a much different winter than in 1997-1998. December 2015 was DC’s warmest on record. The first measurable snowfall of the winter didn’t occur until 0.3” fell on January 17, 2016. Less than a week later, residents of the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) experienced one of the largest snowstorms on record with a total of 17.8” at National Airport on January 22-23. The rest of the 2015-2016 winter season was unremarkable and DC had a seasonal snow total of 22.2”.
 
NOAA’s outlook for the 2026-2027 winter season calls for warmer and wetter than average conditions in the DMV, largely due to the powerful El Nino that’s expected to continue into next year.