Bracing for November weather

 

Feeling like fall in suburban Washington, D.C.

October 2026 finished as a warmer and drier than average month in the nation’s capital. It was DC’s sixth consecutive drier than average October and eighth in the last decade. Although measurable rain occurred on eight of the first 17 days of October, last month finished with 14 consecutive dry days in the nation’s capital.

November is continuing DC’s dry stretch with near average temperatures. Normally, residents of the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) see falling temperatures throughout the month. Average daily/high low temperatures at National Airport range from 64°/46° on November 1 to 53°/38° on November 30, according to NOAA. 

DC’s warmest November temperature on record was 86° on November 1, 1974. Meanwhile, DC’s coldest November temperature of 11° occurred on November 30, 1929. Five of DC’s 10 warmest November’s have occurred over just the last 20 years. NOAA’s outlook for this November is for warmer than average temperatures with near average rainfall in the DMV.

D.C. residents have also seen a fair amount of dry November weather over the last 20 years. There was a notable exception with November 2018 that finished as DC’s wettest with 7.57”. November rainfall average in Washington, D.C. is 2.91”, according to NOAA. That makes November the third driest month of the year on average in the nation’s capital, behind only January and February.

Longtime Washingtonians may recall the record-setting Veteran’s Day 1987 snowfall when 11.5” accumulated. Meanwhile, there has only been one instance of accumulating November snowfall this century in the nation’s capital. That’s when a daily snowfall record of 1.4” occurred at National Airport on November 15, 2018.

Since there’s been so little November snowfall in recent years, NOAA’s average November snowfall total for Washington, D.C. decreased from 0.5” to 0.1” in 2021 when the climate averages were updated.

A frightful or delightful Halloween?

 

Halloween in Potomac, Maryland

This October will finish as both a warmer and drier than average month in the nation’s capital for the seventh time in the last decade. Halloween will also be a dry day with near average high temperatures. That’s in contrast to 2024 when DC’s experienced its warmest Halloween since 1950, with a high temperature of 83°. DC’s average high/low temperatures on October 31 are 64°/46°.

The nation’s capital will finish the month with six days of 80-degree October warmth. That’s above the average of between three and four such days. A record high of 90° occurred in the nation’s capital on October 14. That was also the first 90-degree October heat since 2019. It also set a new record high for latest in the calendar year that 90-degree heat occurred. Eleven of the first 16 days of October were warmer than average in Washington, D.C.

Despite the warm start to October, eight days since October 17 were cooler than average. Although lows downtown fell to 42° twice this month, Dulles Airport has been in the 30s six times in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, it hasn’t been at or below freezing at National Airport during the month of October since 1992.

Measurable rainfall occurred in the nation’s capital on eight of the first 17 days of the month, but none has occurred since October 17. Since today will also be dry, the nation’s capital finish with below average October rainfall for the eighth time in the last decade. The 2.08” of rain this month is well below DC’s October average of 3.66”.

The dry conditions on Halloween should please trick-or-treaters. Temperatures for trick-or-treat this evening will be in the 50s. The last time Washingtonians had measurable rainfall on Halloween was in 2022.

Warmest October’s in Washington, D.C. (Source: NOAA)

1. 67.1° - 2007
2. 66.3° - 2021
3. 65.2° - 1984
4. 64.9° - 2017
5. 64.7° - 1971
6. 64.5° - 1947
7. 64.4° - 1941
8. 64.1° - 2019
9. 63.4° - 1949
10. 63.3° - 1973
11. 63.2° - 1975, 1919
12. 63.1° - 2023, 2016
13. 63.0° - 2024, 1879
14. 62.9° - 2014, 1881
15. 62.8° - 1990

Warmest October’s at Dulles Airport in Sterling, Virginia (NOAA)

1. 63.6° - 2021, 2007
2. 61.8° - 1984
3. 61.4° - 1971
4. 61.1° - 2017
5. 60.5° - 2019
6. 60.2° - 2023
7. 60.0° - 2026
8. 59.4° - 2016
9. 59.3° - 1963
10. 58.8° - 2005

Remembering destructive Sandy

 

Sandy in late-October 2012 (Source: NOAA)

Today is the 14^th anniversary of “Superstorm” Sandy’s landfall in New Jersey. The infamous storm had been a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 940 millibars. It was the strongest hurricane of the active 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. 

However, shortly before its landfall in New Jersey, Sandy moved over cooler water and into an increasingly unfavorable environment for a tropical storm or hurricane. Consequently, the structure of the storm changed and the National Hurricane Center declared Sandy to be a “non-tropical” or “post-tropical” storm. That caused a lot of confusion for residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States who thought Sandy was no longer a threat since the hurricane watches and warnings were discontinued after it was declared “post-tropical.” 

At the time, Sandy was instead dubbed a “Superstorm” and made landfall as the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph and a minimum central pressure of 946 millibars. As Sandy transitioned to a non-tropical storm, its wind field and rain shield each increased in diameter. That allowed for a larger geographic area to be impacted. 

Baltimore, MD; Philadelphia, PA; Trenton, NJ; and Atlantic City, NJ all set records for the lowest air pressure reading, according to NOAA. The lower the air pressure is, the stronger the storm is and the higher the winds tend to be.

Record flooding occurred in New Jersey, New York City and on Long Island, N.Y. with epic storm surges. Tens of thousands were left without electricity or heat for weeks. Record rainfall totals also occurred in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) with the following two-day rainfall totals:

October 29:  DCA (National Airport): 3.85” / Dulles Airport (IAD): 4.26” / BWI: 5.51”

October 30:  DCA: 0.84” / IAD: 1.00” / BWI: 0.92”

Eye-popping snowfall totals also occurred as Sandy pushed further inland and reached some of the higher elevation of the Appalachian Mountains. In West Virginia, for example, Richwood saw 36” of snow, Snowshoe got 32” and Davis had 28”. In all, Sandy did an estimated $88.5 billion in damages (2024 dollars) and is the fifth most destructive “hurricane” in U.S. history. Sandy also caused 147 direct fatalities in the United States largely due to storm surge, flooding and downed trees, according to NOAA.