What Can You Expect In February?

NOAA's Temperature Outlook for February

Although Groundhog Day is a key part of weather folklore (and was made into a classic 1990s comedy starring Bill Murray), there are more accurate ways of predicting the weather.  The most famous groundhog, “Punxsutawney Phil,” and his predecessors have been predicting the weather for over 100 years!  Since 1887, he has seen his shadow 102 times, meaning “six more weeks of winter” were in store.  Although Phil’s “forecasts” aren’t known for their accuracy, the accuracy of weather forecasts made by humans have improve dramatically.

In Washington, D.C., February 1 has an average high and low temperature of 44/29, while February 29 averages 51 and 34 degrees respectively.  The warmest February temperature on record was 84 degrees on February 25, 1930.  February’s coldest temperature was -15 degrees on February 15, 1899.  Both temperatures predated National Airport which opened in 1941.  Since then, the warmest and coldest February temperatures observed at National Airport were 82 degrees on February 28, 1948 and 5 degrees which occurred twice – most recently on February 20, 2015.

According to the National Weather Service, February is the snowiest month of the year in the Nation’s Capital and averages 5.7” – narrowly ahead of January.  Seven of Washington, D.C.’s 10 largest snowstorms have occurred in February.  The second largest snowstorm on record occurred from February 12-14, 1899 when 20.0”.  Meanwhile, the largest snowstorm to occur at National Airport (and Washington, D.C.’s third largest overall) was on February 18-19, 1979, when 18.7” of snow fell.  Fortunately, for those tired of winter weather, there are no major winter storms are on the horizon in the Nation’s Capital.

This month has gotten off to a significantly warmer than average start in the Mid-Atlantic Region.  That’s helped the snowpack from the “Blizzard of 2016” melt rapidly.  Significantly warmer than average temperatures are expected tomorrow as temperatures are poised to reach the low 60s.  On the other hand, a significant winter storm is bringing the central United States heavy snow – and blizzard conditions in spots.  The same system will bring appreciable rainfall to the DC Metro Region tomorrow.  More seasonal temperatures will return Thursday. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for February is for a slight chance of greater than average temperatures for northern portions of the DC Metro Region – closer to the Mason-Dixon Line.  That should be welcome news for many since the last three Februarys have been colder than average.  Just this morning, “Punxsutawney Phil” saw no shadow meaning people can expect an early spring.  However, the last time he called for an early spring in 2013, March saw above average snowfall in the Nation’s Capital.  So people can accept Phil’s forecast for an early spring for its sentimental value – but not necessarily it’s accuracy.

January 2016 - Unremarkable with One Major Exception!

 "Blizzard of 2016" brings snow to DC  (Source: NWS-LWX)

As January comes to a close, it’s a good time to reflect upon what kind of weather this month has featured.  January 2016 finished both colder than average (1.1 degrees below average) and snowier than average with 18.8" measured at National Airport.  Since 2009, six of the last eight January’s have been colder than average in Washington, D.C.

Although the warmest temperature this month was 62 degrees on January 10, three other days featured high temperatures that held in the 20s.  The high and low temperatures of 28 and 15 degrees, respectively, on January 19 not only made it the coldest day of the month, but the coldest day in Washington, D.C. since last February.  What helped differentiate January 2016 was the arrival of one of the largest winter storms on record. 

From January 22-23, Washingtonians experienced their 4^th largest snowfall on record with 17.8” officially falling at National Airport (that tied “Snowmageddon” from February 2010).  This month’s storm became known as the “Blizzard of 2016.”  Significantly higher amounts were measured in the nearby suburbs, with totals of 2 to 3 feet common west and north of the Nation’s Capital.  NOAA ranked this winter storm as a category 4 on their “Northeast Snow Impact” (NESIS) scale.  This “crippling” storm also ranked as the fourth most intense winter storm to affect the northeastern United States since 1950.  Aside from the record snowfall that fell in Baltimore, New York City and Harrisburg, PA, what made this storm so memorable was the significant amount of advance notice people received.   

There is typically a high degree of variability in weather forecasts.  That’s why the relatively early juncture at which nearly all the computer models began to hint at the “Blizzard of 2016” was unusual and got the attention of meteorologists.  Some of the models began to forecast a major east coast storm a week in advance.  Such advance notice – and consistency in the model runs from day to day – allowed meteorologists to fine tune their forecasts as the storm took shape.  In turn, that allowed meteorologists to provide area residents with sufficient notice to make adequate storm preparations.

January 2016 received a total of 18.8” of snow in Washington, D.C. – more than triple the monthly average of 5.6”.  That makes this the snowiest January in the Nation’s Capital since 1996 when 23.8” of snow occurred – the snowiest January on record at National Airport.  Although February will get off to a mild start in the Nation’s Capital, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects more dramatic swings in temperature with periods of both above and below average temperatures during the next few weeks. 

How Does “Blizzard 2016” Compare?

Totals greater than 20" were widespread  (Cabin John, MD)

Easily the largest winter storm in the Mid-Atlantic since “Snowmageddon” in February 2010, the “Blizzard of 2016” has many similarities – and some key differences.  Both storms tied for the fourth largest snowfall at National Airport where 17.8” was measured.  Both storms also occurred on a Friday and continued into Saturday after being forecast well in advance.  Schools were closed for much of the following week after “Snowmageddon” and most area schools will be closed for much of this week as well.

However, area residents are fortunate that no widespread power outages occurred after the Blizzard of 2016, unlike during “Snowmageddon.”  What made the 2010 storm especially damaging was that it began with a few inches of heavier, wetter snow that compromised tree branches and power lines.  This week’s weather has been ideal for gradual snowmelt with temperatures above freezing and without heavy rain, unlike after the January 1996 storm.

Something the January 1996 blizzard (the sixth largest snowstorm on record with 17.3”) has in common with “Snowmageddon” is that smaller snowstorms came just a few days after both storms.  The additional snow accumulation made the recovery from each storm more complicated.  Now that the “Blizzard of 2016” is in the rear view mirror, it’s interesting to point out that five of the top 10 snowstorms on record in the Nation’s Capital have occurred in just the last 20 years.

While 17.8” of snow was measured during the “Blizzard of 2016” at National Airport, the suburbs received considerably more.  Dulles Airport in Sterling, Virginia had its second largest snowfall on record with 29.3”.  Meanwhile, BWI Airport in Baltimore had its largest observed snowfall ever with 29.2”.  Other areas in the Nation’s Capital saw more snow than at National Airport this past weekend, such as the National Zoo with 22.4” and the White House with 22.0”.  The Blizzard of 2016 also ranks as the fourth largest snowstorm on record in Philadelphia with 22.4” and is the largest snowstorm on record at JFK and LaGuardia Airports (30.5” and 27.9” respectively) in New York City.  Meanwhile, New York City’s Central Park finished with 26.8”, just 0.1” off their all-time snowfall record.

This was only the third of the top 10 snowfalls in the Nation’s Capital to occur in January, along with the 1996 storm and Washington, D.C.’s infamous “Knickerbocker Storm” that brought a record 28.0” in 1922.  Overall, Washington, D.C.’s second largest snowstorm was the February 1899 storm that brought 20.0”.  However, the “Blizzard of 2016” is the second largest snowstorm to occur at National Airport since it opened in 1941.

Many Washingtonians find it amazing that such a significant snowstorm occurred following such a warm November and December in the Mid-Atlantic region.  All it takes is one storm to make the entire winter snowier than average.  According to the National Weather Service, Washington, D.C. has an annual average of only 15.4” of snow.  There is a high degree of uncertainty inherent in forecasting winter weather and that makes the approximately five days of advance notice for the “Blizzard of 2016” remarkable.

Weather Quiz

This was the largest snowstorm on record in Washington, D.C.  (Source: U.S. Weather Bureau)

The Blizzard of 2016 brought the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States record snowfall just a few days prior to the anniversary of what major weather event that comes on January 28?

A.   “Snowmaggedon”

B.   “Carmageddon”

C.   “Knickerbocker” Storm

D.   “Superbowl” Snowstorm

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Answer to Weather Quiz question from January 8.

A or B.  The Humboldt Current is the cold water current that runs along the west coast of South America.  It’s also known as the “Peru Current.”

Putting "Blizzard 2016" Into Perspective

4' to 6' drifts are common (Cabin John, MD)

After pummeling the east coast for 36 hours, “Blizzard 2016” has come to a close.  Several cities in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast – including Baltimore, Harrisburg (30.2”) and New York City (JFK and LaGuardia Airports saw 30.5” and 27.9” respectively) all saw their largest snowfalls on record. 

The DC-Baltimore Region saw its largest snowfall since the record setting winter of 2009-2010 when two of the top 10 snowfalls occurred in the Nation’s Capital.  Incidentally, this was the first top 10 snowfall to occur in Washington, D.C. during the month of January in 20 years. 

For details on how much snow fell this weekend in the Nation’s Capital, check out this story I wrote for the WUSA 9 website.  Here are some additional snowfall totals from this weekend’s historic storm from the National Weather Service:

Washington, D.C.

Dalecarlia Reservoir (NW D.C.) – 26.0”
National Zoo (NW D.C.) – 22.4”

Maryland

North Potomac – 38.5”
Gaithersburg – 35.2”
College Park – 20.2”
Hollywood – 15.8”

Virginia

Manassas – 29.5”
Herndon – 28.5”

Dale City – 26.3”
Arlington – 25.8”
 

West Virginia

Glengary -  42.0”

Shepherdstown – 40.5”
Shenandoah Junction – 35.5”
Vanville – 35.4”